Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush's State of the Union

Bumped - Todd

First, Hillary's appearance in Tennessee today, with her timely comments aimed at Bush's State of the Union address.  I am a proud supporter of her in good part because she makes the exact same case about the Bush administration I would personally make, something that is sorely lacking from the other major candidate.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/C/C LINTON?SITE=TNJAC&SECTION=HOME&T EMPLATE=DEFAULT

Hillary Rodham Clinton relegated her chief Democratic rival to the rhetorical sidelines Monday and focused her criticism on President Bush, saying he had lost touch with the concerns of an anxious public.

In a speech to more than 1,000 people jammed in a gymnasium, Clinton did not refer to the fight with Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination. Her audience, which included an equal number listening in an adjoining room, roared with approval when the former first lady took note of the Republican president's dwindling time in office.

"Tonight is a red-letter night in American history," she said. "It is the last time George Bush will give the State of the Union. Next year it will be a Democratic president giving it."

Bush is isolated at the White House, Clinton said, inviting the president to join her in meeting the kind of people she has come across during her campaign. "Sit at tables at diners and hear what's on America's mind," she suggested.

The LAST EVER State of the Union by what history books will most likely describe as one of the 3 worst presidents in our history.   Wooohoo.  Uncork the champagne.  Of course, to make this meaningful beyond changing personalities, we must wrestle the presidency away from the GOP in November.  

Bush is clearly oblivious to the wants and needs of the American people.  Generally speaking, whatever the general public wanted, Bush acted against that in a bizarre need to assert his "independence" from polls (and thereby, the collective desires of the American people.)   Is it any wonder he is loved by none, respected by very few, approved by less than a third, and many of those with apprehension,reflecting mere party loyalty?   In an aside, her comments also pointed at the contrast between Obama and Hillary, where Hillary wants to sit with regular people at diners and in their living rooms and GET IT, understand and get an earful about the problems average Americans are going through, whereas, as this diary from SteveM aptly demonstrated the other day:

Is Obama Better Than The Rest Of Us?  http://mydd.com/story/2008/1/25/173237/0 76

According to Steve Hildebrand, Obama's senior advisor, Obama can't be bothered with such trivialities, as the quote went "She goes to Nevada and sits with Latinos in their living room to court their vote -- that's not the way Barack approaches people."   Well, that's what we like about her, Mr. Hildebrand.

Bush is certain, she said, to assert that the state of the nation is strong even though "we are sliding into a recession. We have as lot of concerns we need to deal with," including a mortgage crisis that is driving people from their homes.

In Clinton's estimation, Bush "has never understood is that the State of the Union is not about a speech in Washington. It is about the lives of the American people who feel they are moving toward the American dream."

Instead Bush has ALWAYS used the State of the Union addresses to push for his pet projects, try to advertise and push through unpopular programs, without much regard to the needs and wants of the average worker, mother, father, older person, young person, sick person, healthy person.  

Before returning to Capitol Hill, she sounded the same theme before 2,000 cheering supporters at Springfield College in Massachusetts.

"We see as we look around our country, the state of our union is one of economic anxiety, it's concern about fairness, worries about that's happening to our country," Clinton said. "There couldn't be a starker comparison between what I believe and we have heard from President Bush and the Washington Republicans."

Hillary in the White House would bring with it many reversals of Bush's policies and plans, an unrolling of the conservative GOP doctrine that has been prevalent for so long.  Of that I am convinced, more so today than a year ago.  

FLORIDA

On to tomorrow's contest in Florida.  If Obama's "momentum" has any wings at all, it will show up in Florida.  An impressive showing for Obama in the by far largest state to go to the polls out of all pre-Feb. 5 states and also the demographically most diverse, yet typical of many follow-up states, would show that Obama is for real, that he built on SC and moved long-standing perceptions of him, and with it the polls.   I am confident that instead Hillary Clinton will make us proud and come out of Florida with a strong victory, but we know soon enough.  

The support site "Florida for Hillary" http://www.floridaforhillary.com/ has listings of what they dub victory parties across the state.  They are obviously confident that Hillary will walk away with a convincing win which will be an important show of support across major demographics that will also be crucial in many other states to follow, despite the delegate dispute still hanging over the proceedings.   Events are planned across the state, so whoever is interested and you live close to Orlando, Gainesville, Palm Beach, Hollywood or Miami, you can find the locations for the parties on that site.   Tampa, my hometown, has one of the larger celebrations planned, at the Green Iguana on Westshore Blvd.  They expect a big turnout.  

More after the break:

The event is dubbed Tampa Bay Springboard to Super Tuesday Victory Party

Here the invite:

From what I have heard, the Tampa event at the Green Iguana is supposedly the largest of the so-called victory parties, which might mean that Hillary Clinton may well come to that party over the others to speak to her supporters (as promised) after the votes are tallied and precincts close, but there are obviously no guarantees.  Incidentally, the Green Iguana has always been one of my favorite hangouts.  That place always features awesome rock bands, has a great atmosphere.   Just fitting that the Hillary campaign chose that place of all places for this party.    If anyone lives close to the Tampa Bay area and would like to meet up there, email me at myddgeorge@gmail.com, so we can arrange a meet.  I will also take a bunch of pics and write a diary about this party the day after.  

Florida is going to have a bigger impact and more media buzz than many seem to realize.  The candidates will be in the state after the polls close, which guarantees a lot of media attention.   Hillary or Obama would make themselves a world of good with a good showing here, just one week before Super Tuesday.  

This is all happening very fast now, back to back, but I believe that if Clinton wins Florida (and with a good showing) then she will have won New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan and Florida (the latter two with as of yet unresolved or poorly resolved delegate issues,) four out of the first six, and will move into Feb. 5 with four states under her belt and a lot of momentum.    



Display:


are you sure the outgoing president (none / 0)

doesn't give the state of the union before the new president is inaugurated? I can't remember whether Clinton gave the address in 2001.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:15:11 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Obama should have "momentum" in a state he hasn't set foot in?  Give me a break.


by skipos on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:17:07 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 2)

Remember- Obama is the only one that has advertised there. Everyone else decided to respect the rules.


by arkansasdemocrat on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:19:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Yes, Hillary respected the rules until she realized it was to her political advantage to try to change them. Why wasn't she talking about seating the MI and FL delegates a few weeks ago?  Before she was spanked in Iowa?


by skipos on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:31:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

WHAT in the hell is wrong about someone asking the DNC to reconsider their ruling?  How is that CHANGING THE RULES?  If the DNC says No, then they say No.  Please don't write any more such nonsense.  It does not hold up with even the laziest review.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:17:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

What's wrong is, not having a problem with the MI/FL delegates not counting until you win big in MI.  Then, suddenly turning around and pushing for those delegates once it's to your advantage.  If Obama had won Michigan, still think Clinton would be pushing to have those delegates seated?  Before the primary was the time to speak out on the unfairness of it all.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:52:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 2)

He is not going to be able to set foot in many of the Feb. 5 states, either.  Any momentume there might be would show up now, and in Florida.   Think about it:  We know where the polls have been (roughly around 16% favoring Clinton.)  Neither candidate is allowed to campaign here, although Obama is doing so with his CNN ads, which air in Florida.  So, if there IS movement from the SC win, then it will show up tomorrow, with SC still fresh, and any momentum still very high (momentum out of a state usually abates some after a week or so.)  If Obama's SC win moves the polls we have seen and wins Florida or gets darn close, we know that he shifted the race.  If it stays about where it had been, then there is no momentum here, obviously, and it is a good assumption that many of the other states likewise would not respond strongly to the SC win.

 A lot about momentum will be shown tomorrow IMO.


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It is not just setting foot (none / 0)

It is calling and canvassing. This is the key. Without GOTV operations the state is worthless.


by benb on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:40:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It is not just setting foot (2.00 / 1)

The value of this is to show MOVEMENT without any candidate able to change the momentum by canvassing, calling, putting money in, etc.   The momentum shows up PURE in this case, as neither Hillary nor Obama can interfere with a read of whatever momentum Obama may or may not get.  What you are talking about is independent from any momentum, it is a strategy of GOTV and canvassing on a state by state basis, which would have nothing to do with a "bounce", with momentum out of SC.  

Tomorrow is the big test for Obama's momentum out of SC, in a very representative (as for demographics) state to boot.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, (2.00 / 2)

The enthusiasm for Hillary around the country is an amazing sight. To hear the mass media talk about it, you would think that she is talking to empty rooms! She'll be "coming home" to Little Rock on Wednesday and I'm going to see her. Can't wait.

Good for her for being the one candidate to remind us that tonight is in some ways George W. Bush's swan song, and that we can all look forward to 1/20/09.


by arkansasdemocrat on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:18:37 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, (none / 0)

Clintons bring far too much baggage to White House!


by Colnel Cody on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:56:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary / Florida (none / 0)

Hilary's problem is that has to start winning some slam-dunk victories, not merely squeaking by as she did in New Hampshire, a state that was supposed to be one of her strongholds.  She was presumed to be the front-runner for so long that she has a lot more to defend than Obama does.  She got whupped in Iowa, and really got clobbered in South Carolina.  And Obama is gathering all the high-profile endorsements.  IMHO, the only way Clinton survives this is that her warchest and well-established infrastructure in the various states comes to her rescue.


by global yokel on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:21:47 PM EST

Re: Hillary / Florida (2.00 / 1)

Nah, her warchest is no bigger than Obama's.   Feb. 5 will be it.  Either Hillary wins a majority of the states and delegates, or Obama does.  Whoever wins the larger share of delegates will be the strong frontrunner and likely nominee.  Even the media pushing for Obama, high-profile endorsements and all the money in the world won't change that what happens on Feb. 5 will likely pre-determine the outcome of this race.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:31:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary supporter: Hillary is awesome!!! (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton will WIN EVERY STATE!!!  Then she'll CURE CANCER!  And WALK ON THE MOON!!!  ALL in ONE NIGHT!!!

Who's being impatient, exactly?  Can we maybe let the voters have a say before you start crowning her majesty?  Clinton supporters were guaranteeing victory in Iowa too, remember.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (1.00 / 2)

George, sorry to digress but I haven't had your PayPal details yet.  Given the likely effectiveness of the Clinton 'Southern Strategy' I am willing to concede our bet.  I think the Clintons have effectively demolished Obama's candidacy with the 'black candidate' identity politics evident in the South Carolina campaign.

You could use your winnings to celebrate her win with a steak dinner for two on the eve of February 5th if you wanted too.  And have a drink to our sometimes collegial association throughout this campaign.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:22:45 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 2)

Honestly Shaun, you are becoming unbearable. I know what I think doesn't matter to you. But I'll say it anyway. You are intentionally trying to hijack this thread and it's not right. You have become quite the disgusting Obama shill.


by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 2)

I am not fond of the remarks you are making here, (and have been making for some time) so even if Hillary wins this contest, as I expect  (so far Democrats have not warmed up to Obama's candidacy, a major failing on his part, although strategically calculated-in to appeal to the Indies) I am inclined to let you keep your money and spend it on a bottle of Bourbon or Scotch.  Money well spent, matey.  :-)


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:35:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

C'mon, George, fair's fair.  You guys won and not unfairly, either.  Politics ain't beanball and your long-standing admiration of her political instincts has proven correct.  I can't pay you if don't want me to but you are welcome to change your mind any time you like, I am happy to pony up in good will.  You won fair and square.  You really have to admire their effectiveness at identity politics and that is no criticism, just the way the game is played on the national stage.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Gee, I didn't realise that 'nativism' was part of the progressive platform now too, but this election has been full of surprises.  I assume you are just speaking for yourself, kemo sabe.  Ya' gotta' laugh or you would cry.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:24:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Well the the use of straw men seems to still be pretty popular, by all appearances.  Enjoy knocking the stuffing out of that one.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:59:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

I think you are using this as a lame pre-emptive excuse in the event Obama loses, which is unfortunate.  If anyone has played identity politics, it is the Obama side (lots of evidence, already discussed,) but even at that the entire issue is blown out of proportion anyways.  Obama never connected with Democrats, as you well know.  He relied on Independents the most, which is not a way to win a primary (a good chunk of later contests don't allow Indies to vote.)  So, the easy scapegoat.  Suit yourself.  I find this "blame others before oneself" societal lowering of "taking responsibility" standards somewhat disturbing.  I am a very progressive person and I have exposed Obama's lack of progressivism on many domestic items time and time again.  His non-universal health care proposal is a travesty, as it starts off already way to the right and we would end up with a centrist mish-mash in the final version.  A loss has MANY fathers.  The reason ALWAYS and FOREMOST comes from the candidates personal failures.  I would personally feel the same way if Hillary lost the nomination, would not blame the lopsided media or money or Jesse Jackson jr.   Too bad some Obama posters have drunk the Kool-Aid so much that they can't comprehend why many rank-and-file Democrats have not warmed up to Obama.  It obviously HAS to be about racial stuff, the cheapest excuse in the book.  

No, keep your money.  The bet was made in a friendly spirit, for fun, amongst friends.  If Obama wins I won't use cheap excuses, so I'll pay up in good spirits.  But, the other way around, I would rather you keep your money, as it comes with the cheesiest and lamest excuse making in the book, and where is the spirit and the sportsmanship in that?  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:39:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Seems a bit one-sided to me.  I can certainly arrange for payment in US dollars if that is the problem.


by Shaun Appleby on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

I had some good exchanges with him in the past, so I am not giving up hope yet.  His posts are definitely disturbing and already show the exact ridiculous response that I predicted months ago would be unpacked, but expected generally from some garden variety trolls ("Ah, Clinton only won because America is racist," "Obama is the better candidate, voters are just plain stupid," etc.  It is never the candidate.  Nope.  Can't be.  Always someone else to blame.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:24:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Democrats haven't warmed up to Obama's candidacy?  So... who voted for him in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina (two wins and a tie)?  The Whigs?  Britain's Labour Party?  And what party has Ted Kennedy been a standard-bearer of for the past 40 years?  Nope, no Democrats in Obama's camp.  No wonder he only has 63 delegates to Hillary's commanding lead of 48.  


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 10:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Yet again the Clinton's view is that there is one set of rules for the rest of the world and another for us.  

What ever you think of it - there was an agreement that no one would Campaign in Florida.  The HillBill show honors no agreement that will prevent then from gaining power.


by mwfolsom on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:24:40 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 1)

WTF? She's not campaigning in FL. She's going to FL after the primary. How is that campaigning?


by lonnette33 on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:26:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

1. The ONLY candidate campaigning in Florida is Obama via CNN ads.

2. Hillary will be flying into the state AFTER the polling places have closed, thereby she does NOT violate any rules.  Obama is ALSO coming into the state after the polling places close, so your comment is absolute nonsense any way you slice it (or is he violating the pledge as well by flying in after votes have been cast?)


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 2)

Obama is not campaigning in Florida via CNN ads.  There is no ban on national media.  If so, then Hillary was campaigning in Florida when she was on Letterman, or Face the Nation.

Hillary was actually in Florida on Sunday for two fundraisers and a s quick photo shoot on the tarmac.  She has pandered to Florida after Iowa and New Hampshire already voted to avoid the punishment of their voters.  If she really believed in what she was saying, she would have stood up for it in the begining rather than waiting until after NH and Iowa and then claiming that Florida and Michigan should count.  

The Clinton's are disingenous at best, dishonest is more appropriate.  They may just out strategize themselves this time.


by jbsloan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:27:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Believed in what she was saying?  I am sure, like many of us, she believes the ruling on Florida and Michigan to be nonsense and way too draconian.  Yet, she abided by the rules.  The "two fundraisers" you mention are explicitly within the rules, so whatever it is you are questioning here is a non-issue.  TV commercials are not the same as Letterman and explicitly not allowed to be aired in the state, as per the rules.

I think the "holier-than-thou" shtick Obama and his supporters are shrouding themselves in will not fly with voters, many of who are seeing through the "job" from a mile away.


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:40:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, (2.00 / 1)

Yes, instead of hearing commentators and pundits tell us how people are going to vote and how the public is tired of Hillary, her husband and the Clinton Campaign, the actual voters will be speaking- and they've heard the Kennedies, The South Carolina coverage, and the endless pundit hatred for the Clintons.  It's time for the actual people to speak- and I am confident that Hillary speaks for them and they will speak for her.  GO HILLARY!


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:26:09 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 1)

OK, Hillary criticizes Bush.  But so does Obama.  There is no contrast there and relatively few policy differences.

But she has turned people off lately with the way she and Bill has campaigned.  And her FL approach just makes the case stronger that they are strategically smart but not ethical.


by mainelib on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:27:10 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 2)

The biggest turnoff about Obama for me has always been how little he criticizes Bush.  I think you are WAY, WAY off if you pretend that there is no difference between Hillary and Obama in terms of their respective comments towards the Bush administration and the GOP in general.  Why do YOU think Obama dubs himself the post-partisan candidate?  Because he always makes very partisan comments?   Let's get some realism back into these comments, people.  Obama has FAILED to make a strong anti-Bush stance, Hillary has clearly made that case.   If she wins the nomination in the end it will be in large part because of that difference between the candidates.

To your second remark:  Absolute nonsense.  There is nothing unethical about Hillary flying into Florida after the polling places close.  Obama is doing the same.  If anyone is borderline unethical in Florida it is Obama by running ads on CNN that air in Florida, which is somewhat against the spirit of the pledge (although Obama gets around it by claiming that it was a national ad buy, so Florida was naturally included, a tactic to get around the pledge Hillary did not engage in.)


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Exactly, the ones who were turned off were the ones who never liked her to begin with and had no intention of voting for her.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:47:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (2.00 / 1)

There is some evidence that in actuality it is Obama who has turned off a large number of people.  Yesterday's release of a new Rasmussen polls ouf of Missouri and a couple of days ago out of Alabama shows Obama's favorability rating very low.  I'll go back and look it up, but I believe he rated only a 62% favorability amongst likely voters in the Democratic primary in Missouri whereas Hillary got 79%.  A similar result in Alabama, with Hillary getting an 84% favorability rating with Obama scoring 67%.  If that discrepancy in favorability is also seen in other contests it shows how much stronger Hillary is valued in comparison to Obama, and where this is likely headed.   I am not sure if the low fav. ratings for Obama in those 2 very important Feb. 5 states is the result of him never connecting with the demogroups most likely to show up in these states or a counter-reaction to recent events.  Hillary's very high, unchanged (from previous polls) fav. ratings indicates that her support is as strong as ever amongst Democratic voters.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:54:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Actually, several Clinton supporters I know have come to reconsider their votes over the past week due to the events in Nevada and South Carolina.


by jbsloan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:28:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

Another thing about the primaries--  I'd bet my last nickel that John Edward's delegates are ultimately going to wind up in the Obama column, so we've got to factor that into the delegate count.  And then there are all the Superdelegates, who will be influenced to some extent by the major endorsements of Obama.


by global yokel on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:31:35 PM EST

Hillary / Florida (none / 0)

DemLady,

I appreciate your response, but I live in New York state, and have been very active in Democratic politics here for decades.  I can report with some authority that there is little enthusiasm for Hilary, even though she is our Senator.  The people I know who do support her say something like, "After careful consideration, I've reluctantly decided to give my support to Senator Clinton..."  No passion, no urgency, no commitment.  

It's way different among us Obama supporters.  We're excited, we're optimistic, we're feeling like we're riding a wave.  Youth are voting in the primaries at 3 times their traditional turnout rate, and they ain't voting for Hilary.  African-Americans are turning out in historic numbers for Barack.

I just don't see what Hilary has going for her other than the fact that the press deemed her heiress to the throne a long while ago.  The lustre is off, and I'm just not sensing any enthusiasm for her candidacy.


by global yokel on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:40:10 PM EST

Re: Hillary / Florida (2.00 / 2)

No offense, but your remarks appear somewhat delusional and unrealistic.  There is a lot of enthusiasm for Hillary, and you claiming otherwise (clearly against solid evidence to the contrary) is unseemly, makes the rest of your post suspect.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary / Florida (none / 0)

The same could be said for all of the comments you have posted in this thread.


by jbsloan on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 06:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary / Florida (none / 0)

 I think there is solid data to provide backup for what I have been saying, and I always refer to future results as a possibility, not a certainty.  Sure, I think Hillary will win in the end, but that is not an absolute certainty.


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 09:33:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary / Florida (2.00 / 1)

Sorry, but I also live in New York State and there is tremendous enthusiasm for Hillary here in the western part of the state.  It's traditionally been a Republican stronghold... but many, many Republicans voted for her in '06. She won her second Senate election in a LANDSLIDE.   I can't imagine what kind of authority you're claiming, because your comment is just plain wrong.


by miriam on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:24:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hilary - Florida (1.00 / 1)

georgeep,

If there is a lot of enthusiasm for Hilary, where can I find some?  It sure isn't evident on the political blogs, which I cruise all the time.
It isn't apparent in the big newspapers, which are predominantly behind Obama.  He is getting powerful endorsements from Ted Kennedy and John Kerry and Pat Leahy, while she gets the suppport of the Governor of the Samoan Islands and Janet Reno.  Huh?  Where is the Hilary buzz?  Are you guys having secret underground parties or something?


by global yokel on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 10:57:21 PM EST

Re: Hilary - Florida (2.00 / 2)

So now all of a sudden the media represents millions of Americans?  The media is trying to hijack this election!  They are not representative of the general public.  And neither are political blogs, especially the far left ones.  According to the Internet crowd, the most popular candidate is Ron Paul, and in reality, we all know that is far from the truth.

Clinton has many enthusiastic supporters, especially among the middle class.  Do you think the average Hillary supporter spends all day watching MSNBC and cares if Ted Kennedy or Pat Leahy endorse Obama?  The issues matter to them, and they know they can count on Hillary to produce actual results if she gets elected.


by musicpvm on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (2.00 / 1)

And regarding the secret underground parties: on my university campus, although Obama supporters do outnumber Hillary supporters (probably the case on campuses across the country), we Hillary supporters do get together, and let me tell you, these are some of the most passionate Democrats I know, i've never seen people so enthusiastic about a candidate the way they are about Hillary!


by musicpvm on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:31:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

I really don't understand any of the appeal of Hillary.  She's a wonk.  How can you be passionate about a wonk?

If she had done anything in the Senate worth talking about, maybe I could understand.  But the only two "tough" stands she has taken that I can remember involved opposing flag burning and creating a fake uproar over sex/violence in video games.  Nothing else stands out.

It's a lark to accuse Obama of being too willing to work with Republicans when Clinton has been triangulating towards the right for the past 7 years.


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

Are you aware that Clinton cast THE deciding vote AGAINST a flag burning amendment to the Constitution?  It would have passed, but failed by one vote.  Had Hillary been AWOL or voted present (as Obama is often wont to do) the bill amending the Constitution would have passed.

Further, have you seen Obama in debates?  He is as boring as can be.  Why would too many people be passionate about that?  A lot of his speeches seem like church sermons to me, a lot of platitudes, little substance.  What does "Hope" really stand for?  In specific terms?  It is very thin with Obama.  Of course, that is just a personal opinion of mine, but put enough of the same opinion together and you get the reason Obama has a lot of trouble attracting many of the major demographic groups needed to form a winning demo coalition.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:53:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

What flag burning amendment to the Constitution?  That is sheer fiction.  Cite your source.

I remember exactly the opposite and here is a source:

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archive s/2005/12/hillary_clinton_pandering_on_f lag_burning/


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

Sheer fiction?  You make that errant slam rather than checking for yourself with Google or Yahoo?  

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/06/27/f lag.burning/index.html

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/ro ll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?con gress=109&session=2&vote=00189

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8318974/

Next time let your fingers do the walking on "the google" instead of on here.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (2.00 / 1)

I see the difference:  She objected to a flag burning amendment but co-sponsored a flag burning law.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2005/12/5/2114 36/972

Can't keep a good triangulator down.


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

I guess you intend to poo-poo the major endorsements Hillary has received, which is a downright stupid exercise.  Instead of a juvenile tit-for-tat "I put my John Lewis, Mondale, McGovern, Strickland, etc. against Kerry, Leahy, etc. let me just point out that Obama received just ONE national union endorsement, the culinary union, and to his embarassment a majority of its members voted against Obama when push came to shove.  Hillary has many top-notch endorsements, but it is not a tit-for-tat, as the PEOPLE will decide this race, and for all the media fawning and the Kennedy endorsement and the money, his DEMOCRATIC VOTER appeal is Obama's biggest shortcoming, which we will see in full bloom (if I am correct) over the next 8 days.  


by georgep on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:14:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Georgep, I don't understand why you and many others fail to see the value in Obama getting a lot of the independent vote, AND getting out record numbers of young voters to the polls to vote for him, a Democrat. He has solid positions on all the issues, especially technology and bringing the internet and broadband to more people. He has shown himself to be competent across a broad range of issues and he generates excitement. We surpassed Republican turnout in SC by SIXTY THOUSAND VOTES because of Barack.

Wake up everyone! This isn't about Hillary, it's about winning in November against a likely McCain! How does Hillary enter that race looking like a winner?


http://jimmyqnyc.blogspot.com
by jsedlock on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:29:44 PM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Just look at Barack's numbers among non-Blacks even WITHIN our party.  His type of racially-fueled campaigning has turned so many off, and you still think he is very electable?  If he can't even muster support among non-Black Democrats how is he going to reach out to rest of the country?

His support among independents is absolutely nowhere near as massive as the media seems to portray it, but obviously they will twist everything into pro-Obama talking points.


by musicpvm on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 11:36:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (1.00 / 2)

You have not listened to one god-damned thing I wrote.

FINE! Nominate Her Royal Highness Hillary Clinton, for fuck's sake! Give me the evidence that she is no John Kerry, that she will go after McCain the moment her nomination is finalized and NOT EVER LET UP UNTIL NOVEMBER 4TH! She will have every piece of right-wing shit hurled at her, the likes of which will make the Swift Boaters seem tame. She had better be prepared for this and immediately fight back. Her sense of entitlement would seem to put her above all these attacks, thinking they will not stick. But they have stuck, evidenced by people who say they will not vote for Hillary if she is the nominee. And these are Democrats! Please tell me who these 295,000+ supporters are that voted for Obama in SC. They are not all black, and a good number of them are Republicans! And the only people doing any race baiting here are the Clintons!


http://jimmyqnyc.blogspot.com
by jsedlock on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:22:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

I am not AT ALL worried about Hillary being able to handle the shit Republicans will throw at her.  She has been taking it from them for the past 15+ years (like nobody else), and she can take it for another 15!  If I am worried about anyone when it comes to that, it is Obama.  He can't even seem to take fact-based criticism from the Clintons, yet somehow he will be able to take on all that the Repubs will throw at him (his lack of experience - especially compared to John McCain if he is the nominee, the race issue - and if you think that's a big issue now, just wait until the general election, etc.)
I trust Clinton far more for not letting up against McCain.  You think Obama will?  You yourself have mentioned him reaching out for Republican support.  He is far more concerned with making friends with the Repubs than debating the issues.  That can clearly be seen from the positive comments he has made about Republicans over the last few weeks and his constant rhetoric about everybody in the country holding hands.
by musicpvm on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:35:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Maybe Hillary can take the Republican abuse for another 15 years, but I know I can't.

For god's sake, do you really want to endure an election with Hillary as the nominee?  Can't you watch the WWF or Ultimate Fighting to get your fix?

If Hillary is the nominee, I'm turning off the TV for the next 6 months.  (And 4 years if she gets elected.  And I think it's a big if!)


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:01:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Thanks for your viewpoints.  Thank goodness they don't reflect a vast majority of Democratic voters.   I am baffled that you don't recognize the paradox here:  In Obama we have a candidate who has more money at his disposal, a fawning media, establishment support, supposedly a "movement," etc.  Yet, despite all of that, Hillary is favored to win the nomination.  Is there NOTHING in you that would make you stop in your tracks and consider that indeed the VOTERS will have overridden all the advantages Obama has in this race.  You can't get any more DEMOCRATIC than that.  To then turn all bitter and turn the TV off for the next 6 months, is fine.  Maybe for the best.   Not saying that that applies to you, but your stated intentions almost makes it appear as if your support is more personality (cult) based, rather than party-based.  As long as you don't cast your vote for the other party, it's all good.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

If there is a cult of personality aspect to this race, it's with Hillary and the Clinton name.

I think that when it comes down to it, a lot of people are just pulling the lever for the name.  "Please take us back to the time when we had the White House and were winners.  Especially after that embarrassment Kerry."

But I remember a lot of bad things from the 90's.  Getting swept out of Congress in 94.  Slash and burn politics.  Constant scandal.  Impeachment.

Do you really think it will be different the second time around?


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:30:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Sure I do.

 I don't quite follow your logic here.  You claim the Clinton name is dirt.  So, why would there be a name cult?  That seems to make no sense at all.  The reason the "Clinton" name could indeed invoke the feelings you claim is that many people feel that the Clinton presidency overall was a very good one.  Therefore, your statements (...impeachment...slash and burn...blablabla) are an obvious minority report.  As such not very conducive reasoning, as the majority (or with multi-candidates a plurality) rules.   Why would I CARE if a singular person named Trent doesn't like it?  It is one opinion out of Millions upon Millions, after all.  

Accept that there are many people (most likely a majority) that does not share your opinions.  There is no absolutes.  To many of us Obama is the weaker candidate, with a thin resume, little substance and not preferrable policy proposals.  You disagree.  That's the way it goes.  The voters in the end decide.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:50:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

...there ARE no absolutes...


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:51:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Can you not discuss this in earnest and with some real evidence instead of all this emotional pablum?  Read the EXACT statement with Obama as the nominee, and tell me it makes just as much (or little) sense:

FINE! Nominate His Messianic Greatness Barack Obama, for crying out loud! Give me the evidence that he is no John Kerry, that he will go after McCain the moment his nomination is finalized and NOT EVER LET UP UNTIL NOVEMBER 4TH! He will have every piece of right-wing shit hurled at him, the likes of which will make the Swift Boaters seem tame. Rezko will be a household name, and by the time the GOP is through making up stories after stories, Obama will look like a Muslim-sympathizer with major shady connections to a Middle-East puppetmaster who himself was heavily financed by an Iraqi billionaire. He had better be prepared for this and immediately fight back. His sense of entitlement would seem to put him above all these attacks, thinking they will not stick. But they are already hurting him even BEFORE the GOP gets their crack at this major story, evidenced by Obama not doing well amongst most Democratic demogroups and his favorability ratings amongst Democrats not looking all that great.  Look at how poorly he performed amongst Democrats in New Hampshire and Nevada, and Florida (one of the most representative states in the country as for demography partitions) will probably show further proof.  
 And the only people doing any race baiting here are the Obamas and the Obama campaign!


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:40:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

can't let you get away with this statement (none / 0)

... "Florida (one of the most representative states in the country as for demography partitions)"...

Did you know that Florida is one of the three (along with PA and WV) oldest States in the country as measured by the percentage of the population over 65?

Also, did you know that of the 20 Counties with the highest percentage of 65+ population in the entire county, 9 are located in Florida?

As you probably do know, the over 65 crowd is one of the (if not the) most difficult demographic groups for Obama.


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:50:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: can't let you get away with this statement (none / 0)

I have seen a study in which Florida was shown as one of the most diverse and representative demographic states in the country, so we will gain a lot of interesting info about where the AA votes go, the Hispanic votes, Whites, women, men, the votes of Democrats with incomes under $50,000, over $50,000, youth vote, older vote, etc.  It is then useful to extrapolate from those findings onto other states, of course with that state's somewhat different demographic makeup in mind.  That obviously comes with the caveat that one does not know the exact turnout on Feb. 5 of the various groups, but the models will sure try to guess at turnout.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 03:59:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Whoops--jsedlock, I mistakenly gave you a troll rating.  I'm new here so please tell how to change it.


by miriam on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:45:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Never mind, I figured it out.


by miriam on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:50:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

I see value in Obama's demographics, and I am sure he will (after reflecting for a week) bring them with him upon endorsing Hillary.  What Obama's problem has always been is with rank and file Democrats and other huge, important demographics.  He loses way too many of us.  

Let me point out a few flashpoints:

1. Women vote - There is generally a huge difference between Hillary and Obama when it comes to the female vote.  The male vote is usually closer, but the female vote is hugely different.  Women make up the larger share of the electorate (in NV they made up 59% of the vote to 41% for men.)   A lot of these women Hillary brings to the table have never voted in their lives, but now they are with us Democrats and with Hillary.  That is extremely valuable moving forward.  Generally speaking, if Obama can't reverse the major discrepancy in the female/male vote, he is going to lose big on Feb. 5.  

2. Hispanics -  Clinton has a major advantage in that all-important demographic (fastest growing minority group in the country) and if Hillary is the nominee we can expect to see record Hispanic turnout for Democrats and particularly for Hillary.  Sure, many would vote Democratic anyway because of the GOPs immigration policies, but the excitement for the candidate would not be the same.  If Obama does not make inroads into the Hispanic vote, Clinton is posied to win several very large states in which the Hispanic vote is all-important with large margins.

3. Democratic voters making under $50,000.  The "bread and butter" of Democratic voters, the most numerous economic group, is strongly for Hillary, Obama is showing poorly in this group.   This is the core, the quintessence, of what the Democratic party is all about.  

4. Gay/Lesbians - For reasons already discussed here, Obama performs poorly overall amongst this core Democratic demographic.  

5. Older voters - over 55:  Generally speaking, that demographic makes up over 55%, in some cases around 65% of the electorate.  Obama is not doing well with older voters, another staple the Democratic party counts on.  

Now, Obama getting his share of Indies is nice, but it comes with a price, as the very thing that attracts Independents to him (post-partisan, outreach to the GOP) turns off many true Democrats.  Besides, McCain has always been a darling for Independents, so Indies would probably split like the always do, with those leaning Democratic voting for us, those leaning Republican voting for McCain.  

Young voters are certainly an asset, and that is probably Obama's biggest asset here.  It is just not enough for him to succeed or make your case, as our votership consists of many parts, with youth voter making up an important, but not determining part of the whole.   I think Hillary with her strong women vote (record-breaking numbers in NH and NV due to women beating all expectations and turning out for her.)  

I don't expect you to agree at this point, but Hillary has broader appeal to a more diverse demographic and brings a larger number of new/fresh voters to the Democratic universe (more women than ever, more Hispanics, etc.)  If things turn out the way I believe they will, these dynamics will become quite clear.


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:15:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

No, I meant the "Hispanics currently supporting Democrats" block, of course.  We are getting quite a share of Hispanics, and of those voting for us Democrats Hillary gets a lopsided share (generally 3 to 1.)


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:30:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Concerning the GLBT constituency: at least Obama, unlike Clinton, thinks that schools should provide tolerance seminars so that kids don't think that having a gay parent is weird. Clinton would have parents decide. Oh, that really helps the kids whose parents are homophobic bigots, which just perpetuates hatred of gays. Clinton has lost a good portion of the gay vote by this stupid remark, and the president of PFLAG has refused to endorse her for this. So don't  think she has us in the bag!


http://jimmyqnyc.blogspot.com
by jsedlock on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:32:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

If you think that Hillary at this point does not have a massive, overwhelming advantage in the GLBT community, you are simply deluding yourself.


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:44:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

I agree that Obama has assembled an intriguing collection of voters. My support of Hillary has to do with my very high confidence in her command of policy and her political toughness, which I think will serve her well in a general election campaign and in getting liberal policies passed.


by OrangeFur on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 03:43:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

Here's something for Hilary supporters to consider:  Her campaign threw in the towel early in South Carolina, under the assumption that Obama was likely to do very well in that state.  Really, it was a remarkable capitulation for someone who hopes to be President of all 50 States.

But the reverse isn't happening-- Obama is challenging in every state, not selectively competing only in those places where he is comfortable that he is stronger.  Says a lot to me about who feels good about their campaign and who doesn't...


by global yokel on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:05:11 AM EST

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

I agree that Hillary barely presented in the state.  That takes a lot away from the value of the win.  You can bet that Obama will pick and choose his contests on Feb. 5, the states he focuses on.  You can see it by his travel schedule.  So, no, Obama is not going to be strongly represented in all states, only those he strategically believes to have a decent chance in.  Also, recall that Obama took himself off the ballot in Michigan, as he knew he had virtually no chance in the state, to avoid an embarassing loss (even if delegates weren't going to be counted initially.)  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:19:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

You can bet the bank that if Hillary wins Florida tomorrow the media will pass over it with barely a whisper.  With all the free TV time Obama is getting I can't see how he'll lose unless the voters are really turned off.  The multi-media, cast-of-thousands extravaganza staged today for the Kennedy endorsement was carried on every last station including C-SPAN. It was like a coronation.  But according to the polls it will have little positive influence with voters. It had a fair amount of negative influence, however.  Some of us Democrats have long memories when it comes to Teddy and they aren't good ones.


by miriam on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:39:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

Voters count.  The lunch-pail Democrats, the single mothers, the old person up in your apartment complex, the Hispanic family in San Diego, etc.  That carries more weight than Ted Kennedy or Leahy or Chris Matthews.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:47:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hilary - Florida (none / 0)

The standard incoherrent dribble from a Hillary hater that I've come to expect. Hillary has criss crossed this country and is fighting for every last vote. Obama was in one state last week, Hillary was in quite a few, so who really was looking to be President of all 50 states as you say. Really hearing this crap makes me think Obama supporters don't really have a whole lot of confidence about what their candidate is going to do in FL, Super Tuesday, and beyond.


by Christopher Lib on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:08:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

hahahahahahahahahaha! (none / 0)

That's funny.  'Victory Parties.'  Is that like 'Mission Accomplished' or 'War is Peace?'  Quit spinning for God's sake.  Can you stop spinning for just a second?


by responsible on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:22:50 AM EST

Re: hahahahahahahahahaha! (none / 0)

It is what these parties are called, for cripes sakes.  You actually blame me/attack me for the names that were given to these gettogethers?  That makes sense exactly how?


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 12:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't blame you (none / 0)

for the name of the parties.  That was obviously spin you picked up from the campaign and decided to pass on.  You keep spinning, though, telling us that if Obama loses Florida, he obviously has no momentum.  Even if Florida were contested that would be somewhat false because of the number of absentee ballots.  More importantly, it was not contested by Obama.  A win for Hillary there is next to meaningless as is a loss for Obama.


by responsible on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

The fact that our party about to put our future chance at the Executive branch in the hands of a 1st term Senator is beyond me.  We have so much at stake.  


by nzubechukwu on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:05:36 AM EST

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

The fact that our party is considering nominating the one person that the Republican party wants us to put up is beyond me.

Just like Bill Clinton lost Congress in 94, Hillary will lose the Congress.

Clinton "is the only thing that I can see right now that excites the very conservative base of the Republican Party in Missouri. ... And it worries me whether we could prevail in Missouri if she is the nominee."  -- Claire McCaskill


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:11:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Funny, despite McCaskill's support for Obama, Missouri appears to be going for Hillary pretty big.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/missouri/missouri_democrat ic_presidential_primary

But, worse than the actual numbers (Clinton shows a massive lead) is this (from Obama's vantage point):

The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 82% of those likely to vote. Obama earns positive reviews from 69%.

Favorables in the low 80s for Clinton, the high 60s for Obama tell the tale quite convincingly.  31% of likely voters in the Democratic primary in MO have a NEGATIVE opinion of Obama (basically every third voter,) which is entirely too high a negative rating with your OWN BASE.

You have to remember that Republicans can't stand the name CLINTON for a good reason.  They can't beat them.  BC won two elections against their best efforts at making him out to be the devil, he would have easily won a third term against BC, and Hillary is favored to beat any GOPer in November.  They can't stand losing constantly, plain and simple.    


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:24:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

You're quoting numbers for Democratic voters.  Her unfavorables will skyrocket against the general electorate.

And AGAIN, stay with me on this:  Hillary is not Bill.  She has neither the speaking skills nor charisma that Bill has.  And his accomplishments are not hers.

I do not consider a Hillary victory a given.  And if it happens, I believe it will ONLY be because the electorate wants to rid themselves of a Republican administration.  And even then, I believe it will be a close finish and down stream races will suffer from a motivated Republican electorate.


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:44:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary poised to win Florida, reacts to Bush' (none / 0)

Obama (as well as Edwards) would have their own problems in the GE.  I always love it when opponents bash the chances of frontrunning candidates.  What tells us that YOUR candidate can win?  Have him FIRST win the nomination, then we'll see about the rest.    For all the people who tell us "Yeah, look how great it worked out the last 2 times when Democrats decided on the wrong candidate," I have yet to see anyone lay out a convincing case that either Bradley or Dean would have had better showings in the GE against Bush.  It could have in fact been worse.  

Hillary has a lot of qualities Bill does not.  From a progressive's point of view, she is true to many of our principles, whereas with Bill that was not always the case.  Hillary has a sense of humor rarely found in a candidate, and it seems more natural with her.  She has lots of charisma, and when both Hillary and Obama are together in debates she comes across very well whereas he seems to be a bumbler and stumbler, not much charisma or surefootedness in those moments.  

OF COURSE these are numbers for Democratic voters.  To have a THIRD of Democrats formed a negative opinion about you in a pivotal state like Missouri a mere 10 days before voting day is not good at all.  It also shows in a nutshell the problem Obama has had all along with DEMOCRATS, the base.  The base has to be rock solid.  The reason we have party primaries before the GE is that the candidate who is PREFERRED by the party base is chosen to run against the same from the other party.  Who CARES how a candidate might do (it is all speculative and devoid of much value anyway) in a GE, since he has to pass the BASE hurdle first.  If he can't, forget thinking of the GE.  

I am sure in 2004 the BY FAR most electable candidate from a GE point of view, the guy who got the best ratings from Independents and cross-over Republicans, was Joe Lieberman.  But without appealing strongly to the DEMOCRATIC BASE all his cross-over appeal was worth exactly nothing  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:02:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida primary is totally meaningless, because... (none / 0)

It is a closed primary, meaning Independents and Republicans can't vote for Obama!!!
If I was in Florida, I wouldn't be able to vote for Obama, and I'm not a Republican.
As the establishment candidate, Clinton should win the Florida primary by double digits, and anything less will be considered a defeat for her.
My prediction.

C 52
O 43
E 5


"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:20:42 AM EST

Re: Florida primary is totally meaningless, becaus (none / 0)

So your saying Clinton will win all the closed primaries by at least 10%?

I think most Clinton supporters would agree with you.


by kristoph on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:37:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And it's a shame! (2.00 / 1)

Because on election day in November Clinton won't get as many independents and Republicans (particularly the young and the racially color blind moderates and conservatives) as Obama would, which will give us (progressives) only modest gains in the House and Senate instead of the triumphant gains we would obtain with Obama.
Conservatives loath her, moderates are wary of her, and the young are not excited by her, where as Obama would have no problem getting every Democrat to vote for him; old, young, male, female, black, white, brown, and whatever, and get all the moderates and conservatives that are unhappy with Dubya and the Republicans party (which measures around 45%). Be prepared for 4 years of divisive Clinton rule where she will be dogged at every corner, blamed for every small thing that goes wrong, and will have a difficult reelection fight to look forward to. You Democrats are about too make your bed with Hillary Clinton, and soon you will have to lie in it.
But I will vote for Clinton if she wins the nomination.
"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:01:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And it's a shame! (none / 0)

Well said


by Trent on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:05:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And it's a shame! (none / 0)

very speculative.  Obama has his own shortcomings in various groups, which are not prone to suddenly get overly excited were he to prevail.   That is WHY he might not win the nomination.  If he were so wildly popular with everybody, as you try to make believe, the old, the young, the rich, the poor, the female, the brown, whatever, he would be a slamdunk for the nomination.   The truth is different, which is why he may not even win the nomination.  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:05:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And it's a shame! (2.00 / 1)

I am predicting that he won't win the nomination, and it's a damn shame. We'll be stuck with Clinton, and the baggage she brings with her.
The bottom line is; Clinton is polarizing, where as Obama is unifying. If you don't believe me, then just pretend to be a Republican (I do it everyday in my line of work in the military) and find out just what moderates and conservatives really feel for Obama and Clinton (and what they feel for Dubya and the Republican party).
For the first time in my life the Democratic party finally has somebody worth voting for, and the Republicans are on the ropes, but the Democratic party establishment is going to shoot him down.
"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:21:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And it's a shame! (none / 0)

OH come on now.  The DEMOCRATIC party establishment?  What exactly is that?  Last I checked Obama fans claim that the party establishment is going for Obama, Ted Kennedy, Leahy, McCaskill, etc.  Let's be real here.  In truth, what may prevent Obama from not making it are REGULAR VOTERS.   That is what is driving this, not the Dem establishment or the punditry or fundraising or newspaper endorsements.  If VOTERS decide against Obama there are valid reasons that go above and beyond the easy blaming of some homogenous "Dem party establishment," which does not exist on that level and in any case has given Obama a lot of support.


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:37:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you really think (none / 0)

Clinton would have a chance if every primary and caucus was open? Or that Hillary didn't have the huge infrastructure of her Husband's from the get go?
Obama came from scratch, and the party leadership (not the party establishment) is starting to realize how much more Obama has to offer on a national scene than Clinton does.
Personally I hope Obama keeps the delegate count close, and forces the Clintons to accept him as VP, because in the VP role he would dwarf Hillary, and it would be like 16 years of him as President.
"Please. How stupid do I look to you? World Domination. I'll leave that to the religious nuts or the Republicans, thank you." The Monarch (Evil Villain)
by fetboy on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 02:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you really think (none / 0)

Of course she would.  And she does.  She is well ahead in most Feb. 5 states, and a majority are open contests.  

As for Obama dwarfing Hillary as VP, you can't be serious.  Has the cult thing really gone this far?  I suggest you read up on the role of the VP before making such statements in the future.  A VP by definition is neutered, does not have much power.  This "16-year presidency" you are invoking in your fantasy is one of the more intersting (and far-fetched) Obamarama storylines I have seen.   Perhaps they consider changing the rules just for Obama?  


by georgep on Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 03:51:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you remember Cheney? (none / 0)

Don't think a VP can dwarf a President? Actually it doesn't matter who Clinton selects as her VP, he or she will dwarf her, unless she picks a running mate more divisive than she is. Even if she picked Barbara Boxer as her VP, Boxer would still be the one that the Democrat party and the nation would look to at times when they needed inspiration.
Hillary's husband is going to dwarf her, and I suspect that is why most Democrats ar