MyDD :: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S-USA: +13%

Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S-USA: +13%

by georgep, Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:26:18 AM EST

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=14 35

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama reversed a declining course and regained some support heading into Election Day here, posting a 15-point lead just hours before polls open here today, the latest and last Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.

1-23/1-25

Obama 41%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 19%
Not sure 10%

Pollster John Zogby on the Democrats in South Carolina: "Obama holds solid leads in every section of the state, and among both men and women. He has big leads among voters under age 65. Interestingly, among voters over age 65, Clinton leads him by a few points only, and Edwards is doing well.

"We are making no predictions, but on the watch list is the order of finish here. Obama leads big among moderates and liberals and among all age groups. He is back over 60% support among blacks, while Clinton and Edwards are tied among whites. Clinton returned to the state after her numbers here started to slip and Edwards started to gain. After all, he is, like Bill Clinton, a son of the South.

Overall, Obama's lead is solid as Election Day dawns, but voters here have been fluid in their support.

Looks like Obama is going to take this one, although I don't see him getting 15% margin. It will be a lot closer than that, probably 5% to 8% margin.

S-USA released their final poll and it is a 13% Obama lead:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=44f7c683-6b75-49c4-9e5d-ac2dbe d05859

Obama 43%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 24%

There was also an ARG poll that shows a 3% margin, which is probably an outlier (although the margin had closed to 6% in one-day tracking from Friday with Zogby as well):

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Obama 39%
Clinton 36%
Edwards 22%

Finally, Zogby's final GOP FL poll:

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=14 35

McCain 31%
Romney 28%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 10%
Ron Paul 5%
Not sure 9%

Too close to call between McCain and Romney. Giuliani looks to be toast. This was his firewall. If he can't win here, he has no business in this thing.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 38 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Final SC Zogby out (none / 0)

With the momentum Obama has in the black community, I look for his margin to increase to 20% tomorrow. Anything less than 15% would be devastating.

by hwc on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:28:25 AM EST

Re: Final SC Zogby out (none / 0)

He has rhe momentum and could get a 20 pt win

It definitely will be a double digit win.

by BDM on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:35:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out (none / 0)

Clinton to win by at least 4, riding her hammerlock on elderly white women. Anything less than that will be a colossal failure -- and a fatal one for her campaign.

by aretino on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:08:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out (none / 0)

Wishful thinking. SC won't move anything, people know what to expect. Then the FL result and Feb. 5 (Obama is favored in only a few contests.) She'll come out of this SC contest unharmed and ready to take mucho delegates next.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:16:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

hahhahaahaahaha (none / 0)

A fatal blow to her campaign. Yep.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Wow with numbers like this he is going to beat the crap out of her lol.

No wonder she is flying out before the results come in.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:41:47 AM EST

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Don't leave town without a speech!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:44:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

I don't know if she is going to give a speech , I don't think she will , at least not in South Carolina.

I hope she does give a speech wherever she is to congratulate him.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:46:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Actually, I have learned it is not the norm to give a speech when you lose. Everyone did in Iowa, because no one knew who was going to win. Obama did in NH because he had planned to win. But, I've learned it's not the norm to give a speech when you lose. No one wants the press parading around with their losing speech. It is however, the norm, to congradulate your opponent when you lose.

formerly bookgirl

by masslib1 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:23:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Well, John Edwards keeps using it as an excuse to get up there and deliver the short version of his stump speech, more or less. Nothing wrong with free media time!

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:32:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Well, I'm just saying, I've learned that is typical.

formerly bookgirl

by masslib1 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:34:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

She's already due to fly out?

formerly bookgirl

by masslib1 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:25:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

yep ,before the results are out.

that tells you she doesn't expect to win.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:27:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Well, yeah, clearly. Do you have a link to that?

formerly bookgirl

by masslib1 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:31:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Clinton left South Carolina for two days during the week and headed to states with contests on February 5, leaving her husband to carry the campaign load here.

She will not be in South Carolina when the polls close on Saturday night -- either an acknowledgment of a likely loss or a bid to lower expectations about her showing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080126/pl_n m/usa_politics_dc_51

There you go.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:34:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

She may return. She's a heavy traveler and it won't surprise me if she returned. If not, oh well.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:37:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

Honestly, I don't blame her. The way she's been treated. I'm not going to hold it aganist her.

by lonnette33 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 08:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

I wish she would resign from the race she is an absolute disaster for the progressive movement and her kos support shows it

by marketingman on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:38:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (2.00 / 1)

Of course you wish. The person who has been a disaster for the progressive movement has been Obama, as his lack of support with A-list progressive bloggers, lack of support from the "working class," lack of support from DEMOCRATS, lack of support from unions, proves.

The one headline you will never find about Obama is:

"Candidate X bashes Bush for his economic policies."

We have two candidates in the race that have produced these types of headlines, one who would NEVER. EVER. I don't have to list that candidate's name here, everybody knows who I am talking about. That tells most of us something.

The reason you wish for everybody to just drop out is to pave the way for Obama, but it is not that easy. If Obama wishes to win he has to convince DEMOCRATS (not just Independents who look at him as the moderate/centrist hope) that he has what it takes.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 11:52:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

The Florida primary is actually Tuesday.

Further Reading

by Dave Sund on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:48:27 AM EST

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

oops, you're right. thx. Brainfart.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:54:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: - Deja vu all over the place? (none / 0)

Eerily similar situation to New Hampshire and Nevada as far as the polls are concerned. Little question that Obama polls well. If the same thing happens, it is THREE STRIKES AND YOU'RE OUT, pal.

by robert ethan on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:55:08 AM EST

Re: - Deja vu all over the place? (none / 0)

It's nothing like Nevada. I think he only led in one poll at least a week before Nevada. Clinton led in all the others.

by DPW on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 02:56:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

The ARG is not averaged over three days like the Zogby poll!

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:18:21 AM EST

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

And the SurveyUSA poll is two days old at this point!

Obama-Clinton: The New Glory of America

by Zeitgeist9000 on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:19:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

well, yeah, these were just released, so they serve to complete the picture heading into voting day.

Either they will be pretty close to the finalresult, or the polls are very off again. I think it will be inbetween.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:22:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

I don't believe in polls much but it does seem we Clinton supporters should brace ourselves for his victory tomorrow. But if she gets close to him, it will be seen as a triumpth.

NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."

by reasonwarrior on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:18:49 AM EST

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

yes, gotta give him that one, most likely.

by georgep on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:23:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

Can't let up now -- Clinton has all the momentum in the polls, and everyone around the country is expecting her to pull out the victory. Failure to pull off at least a New Hampshire now will be a huge setback.

by aretino on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:13:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

It was funny the first time...

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:15:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

it wasn't.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:23:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

not even a little?

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:24:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: (none / 0)

Nope , not even a little.

I would have to be on crack to find humor in that.

Really cheap crack.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:34:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Final SC Zogby out: Obama +15% ARG: +3% S- (none / 0)

All these good for nothing polls. Obama will win tomorrow, and it will be big. I don't think Clinton's late return did much help.

Restore America's Strength.

by RJEvans on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:32:42 AM EST

Downward trend for Hillary (none / 0)

That Zogby poll has Hillary at around 21-23% for the last day, with Edwards at 19%. He certainly has a chance to beat her for second if Zogby is right on this poll and also he gets a good share of undecideds. I'm glad he's been mentioning Hillary leaving the state on election day in all his speeches today. That never goes well with voters.

by Progressive America on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:37:07 AM EST

Re: Downward trend for Hillary (none / 0)

Hill is fine. The story going to the next states is that she leads Reagobama by almost 2-1 in most of them. Edwards is being underpolled because they are underestimating white voters in relation to turnout. He might even win. Write it down.

by Todd Bennett on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 03:51:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Downward trend for Hillary (none / 0)

We'll see. I definitely think they're underpolling his hometown region, which will probably turn out largely for Edwards.

Edwards jumped 10 points from his poll average in 2004 in SC on primary day.

by Progressive America on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 04:07:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So he wins in SC. So what. (none / 0)

He's going to do it on 60% of the black vote and less than 15% of the white vote. The whole thing has been discounted and by Tuesday the whole circus will have moved on to Florida which will get visibility despite the Obama camps hopes and dreams. If it is at all close tonight like less than 10% I'd say he's got a very iffy victory. We'll have to see. The huge number of undecideds makes this a very murky picture.

by ottovbvs on Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:43:51 AM EST

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