MyDD :: Feb. 5 states: Tennessee poll - Clinton 34%, Obama 20%, Edwards 16%

Feb. 5 states: Tennessee poll - Clinton 34%, Obama 20%, Edwards 16%

by georgep, Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:15:21 PM EST

With 85 delegates Tennessee is amongst the biggest prizes on Feb. 5. It has not been polled much at all, but with the primary coming up soon (in 11 days) that is obviously going to change.

Here is the latest poll out of Tennessee:

http://www.wbir.com/pdf/wsmv_poll_012420 08.pdf

If the election was held today, which candidate would you vote for?

Hillary Clinton 34%

Barack Obama 20%

John Edwards 16%

Don't know yet 28%

A pretty large "don't know yet" contingent, but it looks like a pretty good starting position for Hillary in the volunteer state. We will see if future polls show a similar picture. FYI, Tennessee conducts an Open Primary (Independents allowed to vote in it.)

The breakdown of votes is interesting:

African American Democratic voters are nearly twice as likely to prefer Barack Obama as they are Hillary Clinton. However, more than one in three African American voters said they were currently undecided:

If the election was held today, which candidate would you vote for?

Caucasian

Hillary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 14%

John Edwards 20%

Don't know yet 25%

African American

Hillary Clinton 22%

Barack Obama 40%

John Edwards 1%

Don't know yet 36%

No huge gender gap visible in this poll

If the election was held today, which candidate would you vote for?

Men

Hillary Clinton 32%

Barack Obama 21%

John Edwards 20%

Don't know 26%

Women

Hillary Clinton 37%

Barack Obama 19%

John Edwards 12%

Don't know 29%

The economy is the top issue driving the election for poll respondents. I believe that the economy is going to be the overriding issue from here on out in the nomination process and also for the General election cycle. The war in Iraq, which used to be the biggest issue, is falling further and further from our conscience, still considered somewhat important, but no longer the top issue.

What is the single most important issue among Democrats in deciding which candidate to support? (Based on those who name a candidate they support.)

Total

The economy 38%

Health Care 20%

Change in Washington politics 18%

The war in Iraq 15%

Family values 5%

Immigration 4%

Women

The economy 41%

Health Care 24%

Change in Washington politics 13%

The war in Iraq 15%

Family values 6%

Immigration 2%

Men

The economy 35%

Health Care 16%

Change in Washington politics 23%

The war in Iraq 15%

Family values 4%

Immigration 7%

Here some info about what is going on in Tennessee in regards to the nomination battle:

Bill Clinton rally in Nashville last Tuesday.

http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/jan/22 campaign-trail-hits-nashville

Hillary Clinton Ads Appear In Chattanooga, Barack Obama Ads Disappear

http://wdef.com/blog/hillary_clinton_ads appear_in_chattanooga_barack_obama_ads disappear/01/2008

The race is heating up. With many Democrats still undecided, Tennessee is up for grabs, but with a decent lead going into the final 10 days Hillary appears to look strong in Tennessee.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards (all tags)

Permalink :: 25 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Feb. 5 states: Tennessee poll - Clinton 34%, O (none / 0)

Tennessee was a very strong state for Edwards in 2004. Depending on his Feb. 5 strategy I would definitely expect to be this a focus of his campaign's attention.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:17:00 PM EST

Re: Feb. 5 states: Tennessee poll - Clinton 34%, O (none / 0)

I agree that this would probably be a state Edwards should focus on. He pulls in 16% already in this poll, and gets 20% of the male vote, which is pretty good compared to some of the other states.

by georgep on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:35:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tennessee poll (none / 0)

This is good news. Assuming Obama wins South Carolina (and it would be a monumental upset if he doesn't), he'll need about 7-8 states on Feb5 to realistically be viable.

The assumption is he'll win Illinois, Georgia and Alabama. After that, there's slim pickings. Missouri and Tennessee would definitely be in the next tier for him. The chances of him winning a total of 7-8 appear nil if he does not win Tennessee.

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:20:16 PM EST

Re: Tennessee poll (none / 0)

Wrong on Alabama , Clinton leads by 15 in new poll out today.

Clinton 43

Obama 28

Edwards 16

Racial divide shows in the poll like in Tenessee too.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/alabama/alabama_democr atic_presidential_primary

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tennessee poll (none / 0)

In Alabama, Clinton leads by nineteen points among women and just seven points among men. She trails among African-Americans by a two-to-one margin but leads 58% to 9% among white voters (Edwards picks up 24% of the white vote).

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Alabama (none / 0)

58% to 9% among white voters

Wow. This "race war" thing the media has been shoving down our throats is really not working out so well for Obama, is it?

by hwc on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:02:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Alabama (none / 0)

no and it is really too bad for Obama and his supporters and particularly for African Americans. Obama and his surrogates should never have been tempted to portray the Clinton's as racists. It backfired and it has been very divisive.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tennessee poll (none / 0)

I must say I'm surprised at the Alabama poll. If Obama can't pull that off...what else does he have?

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:29:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tennessee poll (none / 0)

Georgia is not a slam dunk for him too.

Obama 41

Clinton 35

It is conceiveable that he wins the popular vote in that state and she wins more delegates.

Its going to be a delegate chase in that state.

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:34:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tennessee poll (none / 0)

Today's georgia poll

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/georgia/georgia_democr atic_presidential_primary

When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line

by lori on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

restraint (none / 0)

I urge all Clinton supporters to restrain from posting polls... Things are still fluid, and polling numbers can flip in a dime...

We took a beating in Iowa...

by prisonbreak on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:32:40 PM EST

Re: restraint (none / 0)

Caucuses are much less predictable. They are all about organization and turnout. Primaries are easier to predict.

Polls are mere snapshots of the here and now anyway. They are indeed subject to change, but with Feb. 5 just 11 days away they need to be looked at. Obviously, with resources limited candidates are also going to look at these polls coming out to assess where they are most viable and where it makes the most sense to pour money into. So, at this point, with little time left before Super-Tuesday, polls like these will be part of the candidates determining their strategies.

by georgep on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: restraint (none / 0)

I'm pretty confident in the latest S. Carolina poll:

Obama 44%
Clinton 24%

I'm going with that as my prediction. I heard the experts on TV say that Obama will win big.

by hwc on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Feb. 5 states: (none / 0)

If these numbers keep happening like this- a brokered convention may not be as unlikely as I think. but then these re polls lets see what results occur.

by bruh21 on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 02:49:31 PM EST

Re: Feb. 5 states: (none / 0)

How are these numbers (and lori's Alabama numbers) indicative of a better chance that we might see a brokered convention? Would not the opposite be true? Looking at Feb. 5, Clinton is favored in most states and Obama is said to have a good chance to win the state (and a majority of delegates within them) in only a handful. From what has been discussed, the consensus seems to be that Obama has a good chance in Illinois (obviously) and also Alabama and Georgia, with a bit of a longer-shot chance available for success in states like Tennessee. If these numbers hold and Hillary gets double-digit wins in states like Tennessee and Alabama, the allocation of delegates for Clinton in comparison with Obama could be more lopsided in her favor than some may believe, making a brokered convention less and less likely.

Again, I am not saying that the two states mentioned in this diary WILL indeed vote as shown in the polls, but if these numbers hold, isn't that indicative of a pretty decisive overall win for Hillary, and with that a stronger delegate differential and less chance at a brokered convention?

by georgep on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:14:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Feb. 5 states: (none / 0)

the states are not winner take all and as you say what will happen is unclear. whats clear to me is that this year is unlike any in recent memory so anyone reacting with certainty is investing in fools gold. i am out of the predictiion business. i conceed i dont know and only point out what i would like to have happen for the sake of the party.

by bruh21 on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:18:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Edwards thinks he is going (none / 0)

to throw his delegates to Obama while Clinton actually goes in to the convention with the most, he had better reconsider. It will cause a lot of trouble and divide the party. It would be a very stupid thing to do considering Clinton, should the trend continues has the support of actual democrats more than Obama or Edwards. The super delegates will come in and stop this from happening.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Edwards thinks he is going (none / 0)

I cannot imagine a literal brokered convention taking place along those lines, frankly. It's important to remember, none of these candidates represent a well-defined, ideological faction of the party as if it were 1968 or something. You will not find that the Hillary delegates all despise Obama or anything of the sort.

In fact, someone recently made a persuasive case that the national delegates will mostly be long-time Democratic activists who have a favorable opinion of all three candidates. So I can't imagine a scenario in which one candidate's delegates all march in lockstep to a different one if the result is going to be a fractured party. A better deal than that will definitely be worked out.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:12:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Edwards thinks he is going (none / 0)

I hope I'm wrong, but I am expecting things to be worse than 1980 when Kennedy refused to step aside even after losing his nomination fight to a sitting Democratic President.

by hwc on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Edwards thinks he is going (none / 0)

I know you people like hyperbole, but I don't sense that intensity of hatred over any of the cnadidates except here.

by bruh21 on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:38:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If Edwards thinks he is going (none / 0)

I mean something along the lines of what Steve M describes. If you read my diary on the subject, I explain it further in the comments. Its about moving the so called overtone window more center left, not simply about who will be the nominee.

by bruh21 on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:37:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tennessee poll-Clinton 34%, Obama 20%, Edwards 16% (none / 0)

Thanks for posting this. I hadn't seen it yet and WBIR is my local station. The results don't surprise me other than I thought Edwards would be higher. Bill Clinton was popular here even though we've been a pretty red state for a while.

I never thought I'd see Hillary win Tennessee in a GE but I believe she can beat any of them but McCain here. And maybe even him.

by tabbycat in tenn on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:39:25 PM EST

Not WBIR poll, sorry. (none / 0)

They do polling too and I didn't click on your link before I posted.

by tabbycat in tenn on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 03:41:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not WBIR poll, sorry. (none / 0)

Actually, this was a WBIR poll.

I agree with your sentiment that this time around we may just see a Democrat win Tennessee, a great thing. I am hopeful for my state Florida as well.

by georgep on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 06:09:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Brokered convention fantasies. (none / 0)

This delegate storyline is a Trippi and Axelrod invention that the largely anti Clinton media (either because they don't like her or want a horserace) have picked up on. Assume Obama wins SC but it is largely a pyrrhic victory based on black votes which seems the likeliest outcome. Then she wins FL comfortably and then wins +/- 19 states on super Tuesday. Thats the mid point of her high and low btw. What's going to happen to the money machine then. Is it still going to be dispensing dollars for Obama at the same rate. What's going to happen to the favor seekers in politics, are they still going to be waiting upon him. NO. If this happens on super Tuesday he has to pull the plug. Of course if wins half of them he goes on but if she wins two thirds to three quarters of them he should step down.

by ottovbvs on Fri Jan 25, 2008 at 04:51:18 PM EST

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