Florida DOES count

On the local newscast tonight here in Tampa, Florida, there was a pretty long report on Obama's Florida memo "Florida's primary is meaningless."  It has been making some waves in the print media as well as on-the-air media (TV, radio) and several somewhat politically involved Democrats I spoke with today knew about this.   Generally, the tenor is that Obama's dismissive memo has been received very negatively.   I guess nobody wants to be told that their votes don't count.  It apparently is creating a bit of a backlash for Obama amongst Floridians, at least those who have heard about this.

The thing that is perplexing is that Obama made repeated statements to Florida boosters that he would indeed seat the Florida delegation.  If that was an honest statement, how then would the Florida primary be "meaningless"?   The only thing that makes sense, given Obama's previous statement that he would seat delegates, is that he now expects to lose Florida, and lose it big.  That is why his previous vows to Floridians about delegates have gone by the wayside, and the Obama campaign now declares Florida meaningless.   It makes Obama look desperate, frankly.  Suddenly, after seeing the latest crop of FL polls (3 on the same day showing a grim picture for Obama's prospects here,) Florida is "stata-non-grata."  

Those of us who know about Obama's previous statements to Floridians that he would seat the Florida delegates can only shake our heads about the tremendous hypocrisy displayed here.  If the polls had shown a tighter race, there is very little chance that memo would have been sent.  If the memo is "the word," then Obama's previous promises to Floridians were untrue.  

This certainly does not make Obama look good at all in this state, any way you slice it.  Florida is a pivotal, pivotal state, perhaps THE most important battleground state.  We simply can't afford to NOT seat the Florida delegates and hope that voters here will "come around," flock to us anyway, despite the jilting the state's Democratic voters received.   The Florida delegates will eventually be seated (unless the Democratic party has a freakish death wish and no interest in winning Florida in November,) which makes issuing the Florida memo even more of a boneheaded move.

Here the Miami Herald's publishing of the Clinton memo/response:

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpoli tics/2008/01/clinton-to-obam.html

Clinton to Obama:  Florida does count

Regarding: Michigan and Florida Presidential Primaries

The Obama campaign today circulated a memo regarding today's Michigan primary and the January 29 Florida primary.  This memo was concerning on several levels.

Let us be very clear.  Senator Clinton signed a pledge that she would not campaign in any state that violates the DNC approved calendar.  Therefore, we did not campaign in Michigan, nor will we campaign in Florida in violation of the pledge.  We have two small scheduled  fundraisers in South Florida on January 27, as explicitly permitted by the pledge, but we will not hold any open public campaign events.  The Obama campaign has also held numerous fundraisers in Florida since signing the pledge. Contrary to the Obama campaign's memo, there are no events at large venues, nor have we organized in the
state. We intend to do so as our party's nominee in the general election, but will honor our pledge not to campaign there in violation of the pledge.

Let us be clear about something else, however.  While Senator Clinton will honor her commitment not to campaign in Florida in violation of the pledge, she also intends to honor her pledge to hear the voices of all Americans.  The people of Michigan and Florida have just as much of a right to have their voices heard as anyone else.  It is disappointing to hear a major Democratic presidential candidate tell the voters of ANY state that their voices aren't important.

Make no mistake -- the Obama campaign had no problems when its supporters and allies in Michigan ran radio ads and other campaign activities urging people to vote for "uncommitted" as a way to register their support for Senator Obama -- and to give him a chance to compete for those delegates at the national convention (http://facts.hillaryhub.com/archive/?id= 5218).  Now, with polls in recent days showing that effort and their candidate running far behind in both states, the Obama campaign has shifted tactics to say that those who cast a vote in either state don't matter.  We couldn't disagree more.

Senator Clinton intends to be President for all fifty states.  And while she will honor the pledge she signed and not campaign in either state, she intends to continue to give every American a voice during this election and when she gets to the White House.




Display:


Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Even if the FL delegates are eventually seated, the primary itself is still irrelevant. The media won't give it anymore coverage than they did the Wyoming GOP caucus, and without coverage a FL win won't give anyone momentum, meaning it will have no affect on the Feb. 5 voting. Momentum will eventually push a candidate to the nomination like it did Kerry, and Florida will have no part in that. The delegate votes it eventually casts will be symbolic, just like everyone else's. How you affect the news is what counts, not how you affect the math.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 01:46:22 AM EST

Florida primary will be heavily covered. (2.00 / 1)

The delegate issue is secondary - what matters most is that the American people will see a large majority voting for Hillary - the popular vote matters.  This will give her crucial momentum heading into Feb 5th primaries.  She will need this momentum after Obama wins SC, as presumed, and especially if she places second or third in both NV and SC.

Obama is going to take a hit on Jan 29th in Florida, and it will be difficult for him to recover from it in just a few days, in time for Feb 5th.  The timing for Florida couldn't be better from the Clinton standpoint, especially if she wins it by double digits.


by enthusiast on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 01:56:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida primary will be heavily covered. (none / 0)

They won't see it, or particularly care, if the media doesn't cover it the same way they do NH, IW, SC, and even NV. No coverage means no momentum. Case in point, Wyoming and Romney.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:12:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida primary will be heavily covered. (2.00 / 1)

Hard to believe you would compare Wyoming and Florida.  The implications of the Florida primary are huge, considering that it takes place 5 days before Feb. 5 and gives insight into movement amongst at least 6 major demographics on a large scale.  


by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:33:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida primary will be heavily covered. (none / 0)

The type of coverage you get is contingent upon the identify of the winner.

In MI, you heard just as much about how Hillary lost AA voters, young voters, yadda yadda, as you heard the fact that she actually won.

The media dislikes Hillary and loves them some horserace.  So if Hillary wins FL going away, don't expect a media coronation.  If something unexpected happens, though, they'll make time.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:52:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida primary will be heavily covered. (none / 0)

I agree with most of what you say, but I think the timing of the primary, the fact that all 3 candidates are in, and the fact that Florida is a huge and also absolutely pivotal state for us Democrats, will make this a much different media story than Michigan.  This is the first time we are testing most of the demogroups that make up the bulk of the country in one state primary (the first CLOSED one at that.)   Sure, we'll see everything spun, of course, but there will be pretty heavy coverage, regardless.

I believe this primary will see a lot of ink and air time, because of the many stories that will come out of it:

Hillary's second comeback (if she loses SC) or Obama's affirmation.  Huge story, either way.

Huge Hispanic demo.  Where did they go, and what implication can be discerned for California?

After SC, how did AA's in Florida respond?

Where did the elder vote go, did they show up?

How about the youth vote?  

Closed primary for the first time, what impact did leaving Independents out have?

etc. etc. etc.

There are a lot of angles that will be talked about, which guarantees a lot of focus and a lot of media attention this time around, IMO.


by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 12:43:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Michigan more coverage than Wyoming! (none / 0)

Michigan's primary got a lot of coverage in the media, because of the Republican contest there.

Florida will be the same way.

Americans will know that Michigan and Florida voters support Hillary, and this will have some kind of an impact going forward.  It will not be completely ignored, and some voters will see Hillary as having strength in the big States, which will help her with donations and votes on Feb 5th.


by enthusiast on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:34:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida primary will be heavily covered. (none / 0)

They will cover it the same way as IA and NH considering we will all be looking for a frontrunner going into Super Tuesday.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:03:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 1)

You have got to be kidding me. This is FLORIDA we are talking about here and ALL the candidates are on the ballot. This is not like Michigan or Wyoming. The media will cover it and it will give the winner momentum. It will matter.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 01:58:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

They'll cover the GOP side, but not the Democratic side. No campaigning, no official delegates, no major coverage. It won't be ignored quite like WY, true, but it certainly won't get the Nevada style coverage needed for momentum building, either.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:13:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 0)

Come on now.   There is ALREADY a lot of coverage.  This Obama memo issue was picked up by every newspaper in the state and featured as major political news, and has resonated on newscasts in a pretty big way as well. Yet, the final contest before Feb. 5, which will feature Clinton, Obama and Edwards, will just have a little ticker mention at the bottom of the TV screen?  When voting for Democrats in the state just might outpace voting for Republicans, even with the delegate issue?  

I live here in the state, and most of the Democrats I know are very excited about this campaign season, this is a big deal here.  Florida is THE battleground state, after all.  This is not a Texas or Wyoming or New York.  Everything that happens here between Democrats and Republicans is big news, because of the major implications for the GE contest in November.   To argue otherwise is just not logical.  


by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:42:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

It won't be covered? Is that why I saw Clinton wins Michigan on CNN and FOX? Florida is a contested primary and despite the fact there are no delegates, it will matter. The media will want to see who will have momentum.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 04:04:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

I shouldn't say it won't be covered at all, I just don't see it getting much more attention than Michigan did. Yes, MI was covered, but not nearly as much as the GOP side, or as much as the Dem battles in SC and NV.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:32:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

So you're saying a race with all the candidates on the ballot will get the same coverage as a race with only one major candidate on the ballot.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:47:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

"I just don't see it getting much more."

Some more, sure. Just not much more. Unless, of course, the candidates start actively campaigning there, but given their pledge, I don't see that happening. But it is possible.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 08:18:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Now you're just playing with words. Count on this, Florida WILL matter.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 05:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

It won't count for squat, but it won't be near what most MyDDers seem to think. Shame we're not in the same town, or I'd bet you a cheap lunch. :)


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 07:54:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Florida would count despite what anyone says .

She would get her media time on that day too ,they would run it along side the republicans.

You would think since he seems to admire Reagan , he would want to compete for those Reagan democrats in Florida.


When I speak I have a southern drawl.. When you come down here Stop and say hello I'm an American from south of the Mason Dixon line
by lori on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 01:49:20 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

They'll run it alongside the GOP on the bottomline, sure, but they won't talk about it as much or give it the same sized headlines the next morning.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:14:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

you are just playing dumb (1.00 / 1)

to be argumentative.  That is such a waste of bandwidth.


ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:50:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you are just playing dumb (none / 0)

Yes, because anyone who disagrees with you on the process is dumb and argumentative. Thanks for that.


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:30:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you are just playing dumb (none / 0)

Am trying to change the rating I gave the comment back to "none" but it won't let me. :(


The Wayward Episcopalian
by Transplanted Texan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama "blew it" in MI and Florida. (none / 0)

He basically insulted the people of both Michigan and Florida, key states for November, and he insulted them in a variety of ways - by not addressing them, not speaking to them, not appearing on the MI ballot, stating that neither State is important in the decision-making process, etc.

Obama's behavior regarding both States has been "ham-handed," to put it gently.  

He made important tactical errors, reflecting poorly on his judgement as a Presidential candidate.


by enthusiast on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 01:59:20 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 1)

Hey- if he'll try to make Hillary appear racist just to get black votes away from her, he'll do just about anything.  Nothing he does from now on will surprise me.  I'm in Hillary's corner.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:00:53 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 0)

"The media won't give it anymore coverage than they did the Wyoming GOP caucus, and without coverage a FL win won't give anyone momentum, meaning it will have no affect on the Feb. 5 voting."

I think you are quite wrong about that.  There will be media coverage about this, and the winner of the Florida contest will gain momentum from it going into the Feb. 5 contests.  That is why the primary matters quite a bit, in fact, has now become a pivotal contest for Feb. 5 positioning.  

Even the MI contest featured several national story lines, which received play, both on the tube and in print.  And that in a contest in which Obama and Edwards did not participate.  There will be infinitely more coverage of a contest in which all candidates will be on the ballot in a state that dwarfs every previous contest.  

Regardless, given that Obama is on the ballot in this state, it was politically foolish to publish this memo.  If Obama ends up losing very badly to Clinton here because people turn away from him due to his dismissiveness of the importance of this state's primary, and the results show that Clinton walks away with huge chunks of the Hispanic vote, the women vote, the elder vote, and has a good showing in the AA and youth vote, it will give her a strong boost for the 22 Feb. 5 states, as many of those feature similar demographics.    


by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 02:02:55 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Well I'm here in Florida and I have to say I think it will be meaningless on the national level, because there was no campaigning here recently. In the Feb 5th states, the candidates have organizations and ongoing campaigns. The main point of moving the primary up was not to give us significance this year, but rather to force the DNC to change the system in future years, so all states will an equal influence. Anyway, it's looking like the media is already just covering the importance of the Republican race here, so I really don't expect much coverage.

Nonetheless, I'm going to cast my absentee ballot for John Edwards and also make sure I vote down that property tax amendment.


by Progressive America on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 03:48:50 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

I haven't hear anything about this in South Florida. We are much more concerned about the "marriage protection" amendment.

Florida Red and Blue is a bipartisan effort to stop this ammendment. Go figure how Obama's United States message will resonate here.

If you're from Florida please click on the link below and sign the petition. We are desperately short of signitures. I won't have time to write a short diary today to inform the community. But if someone could put up a little one or two liner with the link, it would be appreciated. I'll try and do it later. (it's not like one or two liner diaries are all that rare right now.)

http://www.floridaredandblue.com/


Dare to be free.
by misscee on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 07:59:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

oops, threaded incorrectly.


Dare to be free.
by misscee on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 07:59:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

An ARG poll just released (yeah, taken with a grain of salt, since it is ARG) shows:

Clinton 45
Obama 39
Edwards 11

Even without active campaigns there, it looks like the national campaign tightening is spilling over to FL


Once social change begins,it cannot be reversed. You cannot uneducate the person who has learned to read. You cannot oppress people who are not afraid anymore.
by terje on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:53:03 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 1)

I believe those are Strategic Vision numbers:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/docs/SV_FL16Jan08.html

It will be interesting to see what the polling in FL looks like after NV and SC. I suspect it will look more like this than other recent polls out of Florida if Obama manages two wins.


by conspiracy on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:37:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Nevada will be very important in that regard.  I agree that if Obama wins both NV and SC, he will probably bring FL into upper-single digits. I think this SV poll is a huge outlier, just 3 days ago we got 3 polls with totally different results.


by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 12:34:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Hey george do you live in Tampa too? I do! I have noticed the same thing. The people I have talked to feel the same way and are very upset the Obama is doing this!

Also if your in Tampa too, than maybe we can get everyone together here and do some calling for Hill! let me know!


by boxer4hrc on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:56:22 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

Yup, North Tampa. Where are you? I would like to get together and get organized for a GOTV effort.  I was going to contact the campaign and see if they are planning something I can participate in.  With the situation the way it is, it will have to probably come from groups that have endorsed her, like the unions, Emily's List.  Do you have an email addy for contact or a favorite hangout?  


by georgep on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 12:50:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida DOES count (none / 0)

"The thing that is perplexing is that Obama made repeated statements to Florida boosters that he would indeed seat the Florida delegation."

And to Michigan's as well...

There are only a few outliers here on the blogs that are Obama supporters that claim otherwise.


by Jerome Armstrong on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 08:58:49 AM EST

She's going to take over 50% of FL vote. (2.00 / 0)

MI was an open primary and she pulled 56% (Yes WAPO we know that means 44% voted against her). Most FL polls are showing her about 20% ahead one has her 33% although that's probably as unlikely as the ARG one showing her only about 7% ahead. FL is a closed primary and that it going to tend to favor her somewhat. As for the argument that FL is unimportant it will mean that she has prevailed in three of the six primaries that were in any sense "normal" with IA and NV being a bit screwy because of the caucus system and SC being at least in the popular perception distorted by racial voting. Not a good thing for Obama btw. NH and even more so MI despite all the poohing poohing of it by the Obamanauts convinced me she has nothing to worry about. Everyone in MI knew an uncommitted vote was a vote against her and they only totalled 40% which by some strange alchemy is about what the combined Obama/Edwards numbers add up to in most polls and the RCP average. In the short term Edwards is probably doing her a favor by staying in the game because it makes her victories more certain but even without him she's in a commanding position. I don't think whatever happens in NV or SC is actually very important any longer it's simply moved beyond there. All this focus on incredibly trivial incidents in NV and SC is basically absurd.                


by ottovbvs on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:29:05 AM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 1)

Florida will be a huge boost to the Clinton campaign if they win handily, and it's not about delegates obviously, it's about the electability arguement. If Clinton wins by 15% or more how will Obama be able to argue he's still the most electable?

Only the political junkies are paying attension to the delegate count right now anyway. What the people fairly interested in these primaries know is who has won what state. I'm sure if Obama loses handily his team will spin it doesn't mean anything, but I don't think he can make that case.


by Christopher Lib on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 12:10:45 PM EST

Re: Florida DOES count (2.00 / 1)

I think Florida will matter although it SHOULDNT matter because of the decision by the DNC.

I mean do we have a party organization or do we not? Its like the wild west here!

Having said that , and in the interest of contributing something: I think that Florida will tighten up if Obama continues to do well... I do not think Obama will win but assuming Edwards continues to be marginalized (a big assumption given he seems to potentially do well in NV) and Hillary is getting over 50 percent of Florida I see no reason Obama can't get 40 and no a 10 point loss in a state where no one campaigned will not give Hillary much momentum.

I am feeling more positive about Obama's chances today. Yesterday I thought it was over. He's hanging in there but barely. He needs some momentum. I'd still say the overwhelming odds are Hillary will get the nomination but Obama, so far, is not flaming out and is giving her a run for her money and I think thats saying something.


Slash and burn politics baby! Say anything do anything lie cheat steal railroad the opposition into submission: CLINTON FORMULA FOR 2008.
by crackityjones on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 12:11:03 PM EST


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