Disclosure: I am a supporter of Hillary Clinton for president
With the row about race hopefully ironed out and out of the way, as per good-will gestures from Clinton and Obama, the campaigns are headed into the deciding stage of the race, in my opinion.
Here are some of the bits and snippets of where we are and other items some may have missed:
1. Latest campaign ad in NV: Title "About people"
It is short (most likely produced for TV, which can get pretty expensive) but well done. Hillary highlights 35 yrs. of experience, a theme that works for her. Also very evident is populism and the idea that Hillary will fight for the little guy/gal.
2. Clinton's recession response plan
In a very important development, Hillary Clinton has released her recession stimulus plan, to blunt the effects of the recession we are either already in or just about to enter.
I had blogged about the plan in more detail earlier, here:
http://mydd.com/story/2008/1/11/194436/3 52
This article in the NY Times written by Paul Krugman compares Hillary's, Edwards' and Obama's responses to the looming recession:
A very telling excerpt:
Last week Hillary Clinton offered a broadly similar but somewhat larger proposal. (ed. note: compared to Edwards' plan.) It also includes aid to families having trouble paying heating bills, which seems like a clever way to put cash in the hands of people likely to spend it. The Edwards and Clinton proposals both contain provisions for bigger stimulus if the economy worsens.And you have to say that Mrs. Clinton seems comfortable with and knowledgeable about economic policy. I'm sure the Hillary-haters will find some reason that's a bad thing, but there's something to be said for presidents who know what they're talking about.
Clinton's response is predictably populist and progressive. The size and scope of the package puts a lot of money into the pockets of the hardest hit to churn the economy.
Krugman also made some unflattering comments about Obama's recession response. However, that has been discussed in length on this blog earlier today and does not need to be rehashed.
3. Hillary Clinton reiterated that she would start pulling out troops within 60 days of inauguration.
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Russert_dr aws_staunch_defense_of_Clintons_0113.htm l
Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton defended her record on the Iraq war to Tim Russert on NBC's "Meet The Press" this Sunday and insisted that she will begin to pull out troops within 60 days of taking office."From my perspective, part of the reason that the Iraqis are doing anything is because time is running out," she said. "They see this election happening, and they know that they dont have much time, that the blank check George Bush gave them is about to be torn up."
Video of the interview with "gotcha" Russert is contained in the link to the raw story article. One to two brigades per month are to be pulled starting January 2009.
4. Commentary: History vindicates Clinton
Without much comment, since the "racial crap" is hopefully behind us now, a commentary that is setting the historical record straight on what apparently got this flap started in the first place (if it wasn't the earlier excuse making that NH voters showed latent racism in a Dinkins- Wilder-effect way.)
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/1 4/opinion/main3710235.shtml
More after the break...
Where is this headed?
My sense where the race is now headed is that Florida will be the deciding contest for momentum going into Feb. 5. Even though there are nominally no delegates handed out, all candidates have stated that they would seat the Florida delegation, which means in the end the votes cast will count. Florida is by far the biggest and most delegate-rich state of the early state lineup, and it is a pivotal state for us Democrats. Whoever wins Florida will go into Feb. 5 with a head of steam and major momentum. To that end a few freshly released Florida polls tell the tale of a tremendous Clinton lead, all released today:
Quinnipiac poll: Clinton 52%, Obama 31%, Edwards 9%
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypo litics/2008/01/q-poll-in-florida-4way-go p-hor.html
Survey USA poll: Clinton 56%, Obama 23%, Edwards 14%
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics /2008/01/fl_poll_gop_race_tightens_dem.h tml
Rasmussen: Clinton 48%, Obama 24%, Edwards 14%
Of course, these polls are subject to change, even though there are only 14 days left before Floridians get to vote. Much depends on NV and SC upcoming.
The reasons why I strongly believe that Florida, even though it has nominally no delegates to hand out, will be the pivotal contest heading into Feb. 5 and the 22-state extravaganza, are:
A. I think Clinton and Obama will split the next 2 contests, thereby freezing national polls (which roughly make up the average of the 22 Feb. 5 states and are at 10% and growing margin right now.) Winning Florida, the state with by far the largest population of any of the early contests, would signal that that winner holds a strong national edge (and with that the Feb. 5 edge.) So, naturally I believe Clinton has a strong advantage, as I think she is a strong favorite to win Florida.
B. Now, what happens if Obama wins both NV and SC? Then Florida, again, becomes pivotal. The bounce Obama would get out of winning these next two contests would surely be strong, and a major test of the bounce's wings and Obama's depth of popularity would be the FL primary. Were Obama to also win FL, he would be the candidate moving into Feb. 5 with major advantage, having proven himself in a state with major demographics also prominently present in the majority of Feb. 5 states. Should Clinton win Florida after Obama comes into the contest with NV and SC wins under his belt, it would show that Clinton most likely holds the cards in the big states with the most delegates (FL, then CA, NY, etc.)
Chelsey campaigns solo for Hillary in CA
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg i?f=/c/a/2008/01/14/MNDDUEOT1.DTL
Until now, Chelsea Clinton has largely limited her appearances in her mother's campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination to posing for photos and shaking hands alongside her mother and her grandmother, Dorothy Rodham, 87, in early primary states.But on Sunday, she hit the Bay Area as the star of a surprise campaign swing, attending church services at San Francisco's Glide Memorial Church before visiting her mother's Howard Street campaign headquarters, where she was surrounded by crowds of eager volunteers making calls on the senator's behalf.
She also stopped at the House of Nanking for Chinese food and two college locations - Hastings College of the Law and her alma mater, Stanford University - where she met with students and took questions regarding the Clinton campaign.
The Bay Area stop was part of a busy weekend of state stumping for the younger Clinton. On Friday, she went to a UC San Diego dorm to ask college students to vote for her mother. On Saturday, the usually blase crowd at the Santa Monica Farmers' Market - more than used to seeing celebrities - lined up to take pictures with her as she moved though the area.
She had lunch with gay and lesbian undecided voters and later sat with UCLA Democratic student activists and visited two sororities, handling questions on issues ranging from her mother's health care policies and the war in Iraq to the "double standard" for women running for office and how she handles criticism.
"It's a little chaotic. ... I'm new at this," the flustered Clinton daughter said after she was surrounded by well-wishers and amateur photographers with cell phones at Glide Memorial's fellowship hall after the Sunday service.
....
Asked by one UCLA student whether she was excited at the possibility of getting back to the White House, she also exhibited some wry humor."I love my parents, and I want my mother to be president," she said. "But I'm 27 years old. ... I wouldn't want to live with my parents again."
At the San Francisco headquarters, Clinton thanked dozens of volunteers for their work, reminding them that "we need to win California."
Some undecided voters, watching Clinton delivering hugs and signing autographs with such aplomb, said they were moved to seriously consider voting for the senator from New York.
"I'm Hillary's age, and she's willing to stand up and be powerful," said Ruth Vogt, 60, of Oakland, nearly in tears as she met Clinton at the side of her 20-year-daughter, Felicity Grisham, at Glide Memorial. She said she was undecided about her vote in the Democratic primary, but in recent weeks, she has been thinking that the former first lady's resilience, and that of her daughter, is worth considering.
The Clintons' daughter, she said, is a testament to her parents because she is "intelligent and handles herself well."
But the younger Clinton left no doubt about whom she was working for on the political front.
"When are you going to run for president?" one enthusiastic admirer asked at the San Francisco headquarters.
"No, no, no," Clinton said, shaking her head. "I'll leave that to them."
I think Chelsea Clinton is a very impressive young lady. Of course, with two parents of that caliber, no wonder. It seems as if she has inherited her mother's somewhat sly sense of humor. :-)
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