Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail

This is a candidate supporter diary

With this the last installment of the candidate diary series before Christmas (I will be assembling bikes and toys on Christmas eve instead of blogging) let's jump right into the issues I would like to focus on:

1.   "Comeback trail"

A somewhat welcome development has been the media narrative that Obama is said to be the new frontrunner, the guy surging everywhere, etc.   Going with the common media narrative that Obama is surging ahead and that he is now the frontrunner while Hillary Clinton has fallen flat on her face, we are seeing a resurgence of sorts in recent days.  Part of that is obviously due to the fact that the desired media narrative does not reflect reality, so we are seeing movement that appears to completely contradict the current theme, but that is to be expected, since the "real" state of affairs is not nearly as Obama-friendly and Hillary-averse as is being portrayed.   The other part is that Obama has been thrust into this new role and is receiving a lot more scrutiny than before, with the expected result being that it is hurting him in recent days.  The question becomes whether Obama may have peaked too soon, that now Clinton can become the "comeback kid II" with her 99 county helicop-tour of Iowa, and new polling reflecting somewhat of an upswing for Clinton as a result of the recent closer Obama viewing and her own efforts.

Latest polling evidence may be showing a Clinton recovery

Nationally, Hillary Clinton is on the upswing, as can be observed in the RCP averages graph here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/us/democratic_presidentia l_nomination-191.html

The two most recent polls, the USA Gallup poll and ARG, show Clinton at just about 20% margin to Obama's showing.  The Rasmussen polling also shows a Clinton recovery of sorts, now putting her numbers back above the 40% mark and the margin to Obama going back up towards the mid-teens.   These latest results differ from other numbers we had seen, and suggest that Clinton is recovering on the national level, which spells not-so-good news for Obama.   The national polls are important for the Feb. 5 states, and should pretty much stay on this level if the candidates split the early states (in other words, neither candidates wins all 6 early states, but the states split up) and should then remain the same as they have been moving into Feb. 5 and the primaries/caucuses for the 20 states on that day.  

State polling:  

Iowa is all knotted up, but encouraging for Clinton is that Rasmussen is showing Clinton ahead in the state, and more importantly, she also has strong support already (whereas the other candidates' support is softer at this point.)  Another poll, the Quad City Times poll, shows a different picture, with Obama looking strong, and a discrepancy of 12% between the 2 polls.   Still, most people would probably trust the Rasmussen numbers over Quad City, due to the notoriety of the pollster involved here.  Also, the simultaneous Hotline poll is showing an exact tie, further suggesting that the Quad City Times poll may be off.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus -208.html

New Hampshire polling is interesting with the last 4 polls showing a somewhat conflicted picture.  The last poll to be released out of New Hampshire shows Clinton ahead by 9%, which, if confirmed by future polling, would suggest somewhat of a Clinton recovery in New Hampshire.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FOX_ NH-2_DEC_RELEASE_WEB.pdf

South Carolina is showing a very similar picture to what we just saw out of New Hampshire.  After polls narrowing, the last poll showed a healthy jump for Clinton to an 8% lead from the previous tied polling we have seen:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/200 7/12/14/sc-poll-huckabee-bolts-to-top-of -gop-obama-cuts-into-clinton-lead/

It feels as if Clinton may be turning her numbers around in South Carolina and New Hampshire, if the last polls are any guides.  We'll see.  Iowa appears to be totally knotted up, and I personally like that Obama is now being declared the favorite in the state.  We may actually get to see declarations of "Comeback Kid II" before this is over.

New polls out for California and Florida show unchanged and extremely strong for Clinton,which underscores that Clinton's national performance has not been effected much at all, going into the homestretch of the campaigns.

2.  DesMoines Register endorsement

A lot has been written about the DesMoines Register endorsement, it has been long-awaited and thoroughly blogged on this site.  Let me just say that I regard this endorsement as rather important.  I have always believed that in the end Hillary Clinton will win Iowa, and my contention is strengthened, as many who are undecided at this late stage take their cues from their daily newspaper's endorsements, friends and families opinions, etc.  

Here the newspaper's announcement:

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.d ll/article?AID=/20071215/NEWS/71215016

and explanation:

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.d ll/article?AID=/20071215/NEWS/71215018

Key quote:


"The times demand results. We believe as president she'll do what she's always done in her life: Throw herself into the job and work hard. We believe Hillary Rodham Clinton can do great things for our country."

3. "The Hillary I know"

Interesting website unveiled today: http://www.thehillaryiknow.com/

As this is a growing diary style site, it should be interesting to see it develop and grow.  I enjoyed the human aspects of these stories.  It puts bare the true essence of Hillary Clinton, which is as a never tiring advocate for children, minorities, disadvantaged and disabled.  

Here is Hillary's latest TV ad for Iowa, which focuses on the DesMoines Register endorsement:



Display:


Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (1.50 / 2)

Hillary's comeback? Same cold and calculating face, same pandering, same dishonesty, same hateful surrogates, same divisive message filled with hate.....no, no. No one wants that again. It look like a horror movie.


by win on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 12:44:21 AM EST

did you click the link and watch any videos? (none / 0)

To put it mildly, I would not welcome a Clinton presidency, and I am especially depressed by the thought of Mark Penn advising the president.

But watch a few of those videos and tell me you're still convinced that "no one" would want to elect Hillary.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:04:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (2.00 / 1)

congrats on proving the point of the diary: the word is, indeed, filled with irrational hate.

a shame.


by CalDem on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:24:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Win, I think you've certainly demonstrated that you're an expert on messages filled with hate.


by InigoMontoya on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 12:47:22 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (2.00 / 1)

Great diary, George.  Good wrap-up of recent events.  Thanks for your hard work.


by markjay on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 12:56:57 AM EST

I just watched a bunch of the videos (none / 0)

on that new website. I understand that the goal is to make people like Hillary as a person, and I think they are largely successful.

I did find myself thinking that since she's so good at constituent service, I wish she'd stay in the Senate, where that is a large part of the job. But I recognize that I am not exactly the target audience for these videos.

Most people reading these comments probably don't know that georgep and I made a bet some months ago (no money at stake, just pride). He wins if Hillary finishes first or second in Iowa. I win if Hillary finishes third or fourth.

I like my chances, but a record turnout of women could carry the day for Hillary. The Iowa blogger John Deeth has been predicting that outcome.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 12:57:32 AM EST

Re: I just watched a bunch of the videos (none / 0)

What's the bet?


No Way. No How. No McCain.
by Denny Crane on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:01:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just watched a bunch of the videos (none / 0)

I contend that Clinton will finish first or second in Iowa, desmoinesdem is putting her "money" on third or fourth (I imagine she does no longer go with fourth at this point as a high-percentage possibility, though.)   There is nothing at stake, just "for fun."  


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:34:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (1.20 / 5)

Please do not even consider for one moment that this woman and her scumbag surrogates would be a improvement for this country. The one thing they know is how to deflect all the faults of their lousy candidate and a scorched earth policy.No matter how you put lipstick on a pig it is still a pig.
I am sick to death of the used car salesman and his bride.And never ever thought this day would ever come but enough is enough. And woe be this country if she gets the nod-
by katiekat489 on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:16:57 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (2.00 / 1)

What a terrible post.  It is basically all venom and none of it makes much sense beyond an emotional level that appears bent at cartoonizing and demonizing a very good Democrat.   It is posts like yours that make me confident that Clinton will win the nomination in the end.


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:52:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (2.00 / 1)

A great diary georgep.  The Clinton campaign is really in full swing in Iowa this week.  It's amazing really when you consider all they have done - I wonder if anyone on Hillary's team ever has time to sleep!

Hillary is the best candidate we've got.  I hope the voters in this country, who don't already know that, are able to see and hear enough to realize what an incredible President she would be.

The Des Moines Register endorsement was a wonderful honor as well.  I did not expect it.  In fact I spent the day conversing with myself about whether it would be Obama or Edwards who got the endorsement.  Imagine my surprise when I saw it was Hillary!  

And boy does she deserve it.  

Chris Matthews is hellbent on destroying Hillary and promoting Obama.  I also hope the voters in this country realize what is going on with that. It is shocking that a political talking-head can actually get away with the crap that is being spewed by Matthews.  I look forward to watching him shake in his fucking boots when Hillary is the nominee.  If Obama should win the nomination, he will become Chris Matthew's number one target.  I would imagine he has already written the script on that one.  It won't be pretty.


by AUD on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:20:37 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

If Hillary is the best candidate we've got, then we're in big, big trouble.


by Oregonian on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 06:42:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (2.00 / 1)

The testimonials offered by those who knew Hillary during her years in Arkansas solidified my support for her candidacy.  Everyone should view them, for they are truly inspiring.


by truthteller2007 on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:45:17 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Really?  The testimonials of the people she has screwed over and crushed in her grab for power make me detest her even more.  YOU should read that instead of the "fiction" you are touting.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:45:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

How about naming one?  Fact-based, please, not rumor-mongering.


by Trickster on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 02:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Don't hold your breath.  Yitbos has always had a special place of hate for Hillary Clinton in his heart, so, while you'll get a lot of that to hear, you won't get any substantial argumentation to go along with it, just irrationality.  


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 03:16:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Maybe everyone should read this gem I mined from the hidden comments:

[new] Re: Is 2008 1976 All Over Again? (0.85 / 7)
HILLARY HAS NO FUCKING EXPERIENCE OUTSIDE OF 7 YEARS AS A SENATOR!  HER SOLE QUALIFICATION ON EXPERIENCE IS THAT SHE HAPPENED TO BE MARRIED TO A GUY WHO BECAME THE PRESIDENT!!  THIS BULLSHIT FANTASY THAT SHE WAS THE CONSIGLIERE OF THE CLINTON ADMINISTRATION IS RIDICULOUS!!!  SHE FAILED MISERABLY IN TRYING TO PASS HER MAJOR INITIATIVE, WITH A DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS NO LESS!!!!  SHE DIDN'T SERVE AS A CABINET MEMBER NOR ACT IN THAT ROLE!!!!!  SHE WAS EMBROILED IN SCANDAL AFTER SCANDAL ALONG WITH BILL!!!!!! SHE IS NO MORE EXPERIENCED THAN EDWARDS OR OBAMA, EXCEPT SHE IS THE ONLY ONE OF THE THREE TO FUCK A PRESIDENT (OR AT LEAST WE ASSUME)!!!!!!!

And you left out one of our most inexperienced Presidents who followed an incompetent President.  His name was Abraham Lincoln.  

Please Donate to Obama for President 2008
by yitbos96bb on Fri Dec 07, 2007 at 10:36:16 PM EST
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by truthteller2007 on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 07:21:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Thanks for all this.

It is a relief to see her back up to 40 on Rasmussen for the last two days- it's the only poll that distressed me since that one could be indicative of what might happen on Super Tuesday- but she has a good lead again which is nice.  She fell so far and so fast, I could not figure what was fueling it- it was after the debate she did so well in- now I think it was an anomaly- it's hard to imagine people would change their vote and then change it back so fast.  So that's good.

WOW- that DMR commercial is AWESOME.  I don't see how anyone can't be impressed.  I think Hillary is going to win Iowa.  I think Edwards will drop out after New Hampshire and endorse Obama.  I think Hillary will wrap it up on Super Tuesday, I think Obama is going to be able walk away with respect- respect he would not have if the vote had been taken two months ago.  He has proved himself a fighter and a tough contender- his future is completely open to great things.  At least that's what I hope will happen.  Hillary is still in a great position to win, the media does not reflect the reality of the situation, and I'm behind her all the way.


by reasonwarrior on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 04:32:52 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Clinton supporters are funny, funny people. The only thing they care about are polls.

Polls, polls, polls.

Her support has always been a mile wide and an inch deep. No amount of spin will change that.

The only thing she ever had going for her was this sense of "inevitability." Without she has nothing. She is a lousy public communicator. Contrary to her campaign spin, she has little political experience (two terms as a junior Senator from liberal NY is hardly anything exceptional).

So her strategy has always been to convince others that the reason they should support her is because her victory is a foregone conclusion. The reason they hate Obama as irrationally as they do, is because he had the temerity to actually believe that Hillary should have to earn the nomination by winning an actual election contest. When her poll numbers began to falter and her "inevitability" came into question, her supporters needed to reassure others, and themselves, that she was still the frontrunner.

That's all this diary is about: mass self-delusion.

This is ultimately the reason I think Hillary will fail. Because if she loses Iowa, she will almost certainly lose New Hampshire and South Carolina as well.

Then there will be absolutely no rationale for her candidacy anymore. It's hard to portray yourself as a frontrunner and inevitable if you keep losing elections.

You live by the poll, you die by the poll.


by JackBourassa on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 06:29:25 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Clinton supporters are funny, funny people. The only thing they care about are polls.

Polls, polls, polls.

Her support has always been a mile wide and an inch deep. No amount of spin will change that.

The only thing she ever had going for her was this sense of "inevitability." Without it she has nothing. She is a lousy public communicator. Contrary to her campaign spin, she has little political experience (two terms as a junior Senator from liberal NY is hardly anything exceptional). She doesn't have a single legislative accomplishment to her name (either as first lady or as a Senator). She is currently the least popular candidate in the race for either Republicans or Democrats.

So her strategy has always been to convince others that the reason they should support her is because her victory is a foregone conclusion. The reason they hate Obama as irrationally as they do, is because he had the temerity to actually believe that Hillary should have to earn the nomination by winning an actual election contest. When her poll numbers began to falter and her "inevitability" came into question, her supporters needed to reassure others, and themselves, that she was still the frontrunner.

That's all this diary is about: mass self-delusion.

This is ultimately the reason I think Hillary will fail. Because if she loses Iowa, she will almost certainly lose New Hampshire and South Carolina as well.

Then there will be absolutely no rationale for her candidacy anymore. It's hard to portray yourself as a frontrunner and inevitable if you keep losing elections.

You live by the poll, you die by the poll.


by JackBourassa on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 06:48:34 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Jack, the problem for Obama is that even though Clinton is not the perfect candidate, Obama himself is viewed even less as presidential material.  His is a candidacy that is largely based on personality, not much substance.  If anyone's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, it is Obama's.   Therefore you don't see him breaking out or surging ahead like Dean.  In fact, as he got into this new role he seems less than comfortable and confident.  He was actually doing better when he was behind by double-digits, now scrutiny has come to his doorstep, and he does not seem to handle it too well.  Iowa is very dangerous to him now.  He must win it, and in convincing fashion, or the talk will be that for all the excitement he can't get his supporters to come out in a way that matches polling we have seen, which then creates the meme of a demographic problem Obama has.  If he does not win Iowa in convincing fashion now, his candidacy will probably fall apart badly on the basis of underperforming current expectations.  That is not a danger that would have been present, were Obama seen as closely behind and ready to pounce.


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 10:02:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's fate tied to IA (none / 0)

It always was. That's why he's invested so much effort there. But as his wife admitted if they lose in IA it's all over. His problem is that a very narrow win is essentially the same as losing. Clinton does not have that liability. Whey do all the Obama fans seem to believe that a win in IA automatically makes him the winner in NH. There is a mountain of evidence from previous elections that demonstrate this not to be the case. Apart from the fact that the three leading candidates in IA all appear to have a shot I'm coming to the conclusion they don't mean much else. Parsing narrow margins given the electoral process there seems to me rather foolish. It will all depend on turnout and organization and given her union endorsements, her whizz chief state organizer, Clinton appears to me to have the edge. Remember Dean.        


by ottovbvs on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:09:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's fate tied to IA (none / 0)

I agree that Clinton has a slight edge in IA, but the thing that the current pro-Obama narrative has created is that he is expected to win Iowa going away, which is probably not very likely.  If he loses IA now, his performance  (given that media expectations are pointing to a 6% to 9% win for him) will be seen as dismal, grossly underperforming, which would then put in question his candidacies reliance on the "wrong" demographics, the type that simply does not turn out in large enough numbers for caucuses.   Even a slight win will not give a huge boost moving forward, as he is expected to win big.   The current media narrative of Obama surging in Iowa (when the evidence shows a tied race) is not good news for him, due to the expectations it creates.  If he can live up to them, and win Iowa hands down, in big fashion, more power to him.  Then it will be a good race until Feb. 5.   If not, he may rue the day the widely discussed ABC/WaPo Iowa poll came out.


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's fate tied to IA (none / 0)

Um, the media expectations DO NOT have him winning by 6-9%... You really need to do better research and READ past a headline or the Hillary Clinton propag... I mean campaign site.  Please stop making stuff up.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:44:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's fate tied to IA (none / 0)

Um, you are wrong.  

1. I don't read or get Hillary Clinton propaganda, so you are way off already.

2. The media has chosen to jump on polls that have Obama ahead, don't report polls that have Clinton ahead (i.e. the Rasmussen Iowa poll that shows Clinton ahead by 3%.)   That is fine, they are trying to create a narrative.  But it has the effect that all people hear is that Obama has momentum, has surged ahead in Iowa big-time.  The thing about momentum is that it has to keep going or it is considered stalled.  So, if Obama is said to be ahead by 4%, 6%, then logically in a week's time momentum would have to surge him into double-digit leads.  When the media reports on the SV poll that showed Obama ahead by 8% and the Quad Times poll that showed him ahead by 9%, but is basically silent about the Rasmussen poll that showed Clinton ahead by 3%, the narrative that has been created is clearly that Obama is ahead by 6% to 9%.  

Perhaps you want to pay better attention next time instead of reading too much into what you read at Obamakumbaya.com, eh?  :-)


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 03:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's fate tied to IA (none / 0)

Again george and other Clinton supporters are engaged in wishful thinking...

Why do the CLinton's spin so much? No wonder you people are always so dizzy.

If Obama wins, even by one point, he's coming out of Iowa as the winner. End of story. Take that to the bank. The end.

I love the whole new narrative coming from the Clinton side. Even if they lose, they're still the frontrunner. lol. Because, like I wrote, without that narrative they have nothing.

Want to know what will happen? There will be an avalanche if Obama takes the first caucus. He's already tied/ahead in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He's seriously closing in in New Mexico, with latest surveys showing him down by less than 10.

National polls are meaningless only because we don't have a national primary. Obama hasn't been visible in many states, past the first four. His strategy is obvious, to win in the early states and then use all his money and make his move on Super Duper Tuesday.

So the whole premise of this diary/thread is false. If her numbers have stabilized nationally, it doesn't matter. Because those numbers will ultimately be affected, as they ALWAYS are, by what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire. Hillary doesn't have a firewall (BTW, am I the only one who is disgusted by all the Bush-Rove terms and tactics employed by her idiot strategist/pollster/Karl Rove-wannabe Mark Penn) to offset losing early, the way Bush did in the South against McCain in 2000. If Obama wins in white middle class Iowa and New Hampshire, what will the black vote do? Rally to Clinton? No they will rally to one of their own --- Barrack Obama. This means he will be a lock in the south as well.

Ask yourself this: what were John Kerry's numbers nationally before the Iowa caucus? What were Dean's? The latter led, the former was tied with Sharpton for fifth or sixth. What happened after Iowa? Kerry surged, Dean's numbers collapsed, and then Kerry led. A lead he never relinquished.

No amount of spin changes that...


by JackBourassa on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 05:42:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

An astute and considered diary as usual. I've  always thought that forcing Obama to the fore as the new front runner would put him in the spotlight where he seems curiously uncomfortable. So far Obama has been unable to close the sale, people seem uneasy with letting go of Clinton just yet.  Hopefully Clinton can take advantage of this moment of indecision. She is doing all the right things, the bio ads, and especially the testimonies are powerful statements of fact, immune to distortion by the media or her opponents. I hope she keeps them up and makes them a permanent feature of her campaign. Bill Clinton, after a few early wobbly moments, has been excellent on the campaign trail in Iowa. The most powerful thing he does is to appeal to voters' emotions through reason. Through expertly layered anecdotes, facts and resume, BIll in building a strong case for Hillary as an agent of change. The decision to take that word "change" and make it apply to Hillary as a change-agent, has been an astute move. The Charlie Rose interview was brutally good. It should serve as a manual to Hillary and her campaign on how to blunt your opponent without resulting in bloodshed. The anti-Clinton media tried to spin it as an attack, but ended up repeating Bill's comments, thereby amplifying the rolling the dice message. The DMR coming a day later after the Rose interview just reinforced with equal reason the doubts about Obama's readiness. Now Obama is the frontrunner, albeit one trying to dodge the spotlight, I hope Clinton can continue, for her part, under the radar to fine tune her campaign and get her message out, relieved of the burden, for the moment, of having to be front runner canon fodder for the media.


by superetendar on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 08:18:31 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Hillary Clinton's positive approach to the campaign, compared to the more pinched aspect Obama has recently presented attacking John Edwards, Bill Clinton and Hillary, reminds me that the view we get from the national press is very distant from what is happening on the ground. Thanks for the alternative view, georgep.


by souvarine on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 08:47:28 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

I think there is major uneasiness in the Obama camp, because they know that Iowa depends largely on turnout, and his demographics are generally of the "weaker" kind, the type that tends to stay home on a chilly winter day.

 I personally don't want to see what seems to be happening in South Carolina and New Hampshire (the two most recent polls have Clinton approaching double-digit margins again) happen in Iowa, quite frankly.  I want the media narrative to be that Obama is ahead by at least 5%, 6% in the state.  When it turns out to be a fake lead in the end, the narrative will quickly become that Obama is banking on constituency groups that are not likely to turn out, which would then carry over to the following states.  


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 09:51:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Positive?  After Mark Penn attempt to get the Cocaine talk going again?  Bullshit.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:42:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

The hate isn't coming from Hillary, it's coming from the people that dislike her and most of them can't give a good reason for it..  I have seen more ratical things done and said against the Clintons than any other politicans in my life time.. Then it is held against her that she is polarizing...  I have never seen her to try to get revenge for the mean and cruel things that are done to her...
This is the kind of president I would like to see in the Whitehouse, one that can still work with both side even after the nasty way she has been treated by her rivals
by my nickle on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 08:49:12 AM EST

Do journalists read their own polls. (none / 0)

The press storyline is bizarre. Just take two opeds in this morning's WAPO by EJ and Cohen. Do these guys read their own newspapers polls. The WAPO's which appeared early last week had Clinton 30 points ahead which was a huge number but the significant thing about it was the detailed analysis of how democratic voters perceived the candidates ability to handle the major policy issues like healthcare, Iraq, the economy and other attributes like electability and experience. In a sentence hers were in the sixties and seventies his were in the teens and single figures in a couple of cases. Now unless the voters of IA and NH are drinking different water one has to assume their thoughts aren't very different. What a lot of these guys seem to be taking refuge in is the meme that this is going to be an election about change and of course to some extent they are right but even more it's going to be an election about competence and that's where the flight to quality comes in. Of the six elections in January Clinton will win most of them, if she wins IA which is very possible she will probably win all of them. On super Tuesday she will sweep the board. The press seem to have more interest in grinding axes and promoting the horserace narrative than their own reputations it seems. Just one other point the inane Clinton hating postings here add nothing to the debate they just dirty the sidewalk. If someone has something interesting and relevant to say by all means say it bumpers stickers are rather tedious.      


by ottovbvs on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 09:49:26 AM EST

I learned so much about Hillary (none / 0)

from that pic of her at a mic in front of a flag.

Yessirree, that was informative.

Ditto for the pic of Hil with Bill at a podium.

Keep the good stuff coming!


by RT on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 10:14:11 AM EST

Re: I learned so much about Hillary (none / 0)

Thanks.  I will.  


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:23:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

The "comeback" really should be called what it is: the attempted restoration of the Clinton dynasty, with all the related devotion to corporate interests, triangulation, quasi-Jacksonian hawkishness, and a mean-spirited and cynical us-against-them America.  Maybe some other candidate will fail in trying to move us beyond the "I can take on the Republican attack machine" approach to running for the President, and maybe those "hardened"  and "battle-tested"  Carville accolytes will think of me as being hopefully dim, but I at least want to hope for an America beyond the polarization and divisiveness that the Clintons so completely represent.  If Clinton gets the nomination, I hope she loses, because only then will the Democratic party hopefully wake up and look to the future, and a more united country. And, okay, I'll say it: A REAL Politics of Hope.


by denis diderot on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:00:30 AM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Thanks for spreading the right-wing themes of hopelesness.  

I can't believe how many new names have popped up for Obama in the last 7 days.  You kids can't all be suckpoppets, can you?   What does this one make, the fifth such incarnation within that time span?    All writing in similarly nasty ways, in equally trashy "Bill Clinton is and was a jerk" right-wing thematic.  

BTW, I put "comeback" in quotes, because I don't really believe it is a comeback, the race has not changed as dramatically as the media and some pundits have lulled you into believing.  The truth is that Obama has his own ceiling to contend with, and there is a good chance his upper ceiling is not tall enough to carry the day.  That is all that is, but, clearly, the theme "comeback" would work well for Hillary, as it underlies the theme of a fighter, someone who was not handed anything but "came back" purely because of hard work, tirelessly talking to regular people, "getting it."   Hillary would be seen as equally likely to work countless hours to get things done for the people.   I am liking that theme.


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:21:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

George the sockpuppets are migrating from Kos. (none / 0)

Every so often the odd Obama fan has something interesting to say but most of the time it's sloganizing. As you say picking up right wing meme's that have been around for 15 years and regurgitating them. It's odd that the most virulent anti Clinton material is on the extreme right and the extreme left which rather the views of philosophers like Berlin, Orwell and Arendt that the extremes aren't very different. I also agree with your comment that reports of her "death" are largely the inventions of journalist who need to write about something or people like Matthews who have to create sensations but in his case seem to be animated by much deeper and more bitter impulses.      


by ottovbvs on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 12:17:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: George the sockpuppets are migrating from Kos. (none / 0)

Actually, Obama is not really "far-left," he probably would be the most moderate president out of the 3 top-tier candidates.  He has displayed very moderate tendencies (look at his progressive ranking at #44 out of 49 Democrats) and on top would be more prone to be a compromiser with the other side, pushing the whole thing even further to the right.  So, the vitriol from Obama fans does not come from the far right, more from the moderate right-leaning center.  


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 03:03:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

One more thing: Read this review in the New York Times of the book, The Squandering of America.  Better yet, read the book.  Then tell me that we really want to go back to the Clinton years.  http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/16/books/ review/Scheiber-t.html?_r=1&oref=slo gin


by denis diderot on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:01:59 AM EST

These contributions are dirtying the sidewalk (none / 0)

There's no substance just some parroted right wing bumper sticker lines and an imprecation to go and read another book from the Clinton hating cottage industry.      


by ottovbvs on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:13:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: These contributions are dirtying the sidewalk (none / 0)

Have you considered why there is a "Clinton hating cottage industry"?  Is this phenomenon just some mass hysteria? Some epidemic of irrationality that blinds all who dare to criticize the Clintons? In the end, it all really reminds me of what Lyotard meant when he wrote of "agon" -- discourse as war, the gap between cognitive judgment and politics, that turns the whole process into a series of word games where rhetorical victory is what mattered.  Lyotard both embraced and criticized the idea of a dialogue-centered politics, because he rejected the possibility (or viability, or usefulness) of consensus.  Politics was thus, ultimately, simply war, and winning is all that matters.  That is how I  view the Hillary, and Bill before.  No principle or ideal is above compromise in the name of winning.  And as Diderot aptly wrote:  

"The arbitrary rule of a just and enlightened prince is always bad. His virtues are the most dangerous and the surest form of seduction: they lull a people imperceptibly into the habit of loving, respecting, and serving his successor, whoever that successor may be, no matter how wicked or stupid."


by denis diderot on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:34:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: These contributions are dirtying the sidewalk (none / 0)

Have you considered why there is a "Clinton hating cottage industry"?

Ummm, yes, I have.  I think Richard Mellon Scaife, Ted Olsen, Ann Coulter, R. Emmett Tyrell, Lawrence Silberman, Matt Drudge, Ken Starr, and David Brock have considered it, too.  In fact, David Brock, who knows quite a bit about the subject, wrote a book about it which I suggest you read.


by Trickster on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 02:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Taking Diderot's advice. (none / 0)

I took Diderot's advice and read the book review. As far as I can see it was castigating the system and named Obama and Edwards as equally tainted. I'm not disputing the system is deeply corrupt but that whether we like it or not is American politics. If you want to play you have to pay. Why Diderot is singling out Clinton for special blame seems more the consequence of his own prejudices than a recognition it's the process that is at fault.    


by ottovbvs on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:17:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

While I think the DMR endorsement is a good one... two little points.  1) How many people vote for someone because 6 people whom they have never met (and this goes for Obama's Boston Globe endorsement as well) say they are best, especially when all the candidates and their subordinates act like lobbyists and bring out the dinners, meetings, etc.  The whole process by ALL candidates (so criticizing mine as well) has gotten ridiculous.  2) Does this actually cause a surge... I mean Edwards did finish second, but he and Kerry started coming from nowhere in 2003...if the DMR is really that powerful, then why didn't Edwards win Iowa on its strength.  It seems like the people they endorse have momentum or other factors in Iowa, so saying it propels to 1st or second, while true, its also easy to say that the endorsements are hedged as well.  

I guess we will see if this has a lot of impact.  Don't get me wrong, its definately a good thing for Hillary, but the question is it this mythical god like power to propel her to a win in Iowa.  Based on some of the ground things I have heard, I'm not so sure...  I guess we will see.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 11:41:15 AM EST

No on says DMR mythical or godlike. (none / 0)

It's just a very important endorsement from an entity in IA that's a bit like the state fair, apple pie and puppy dogs. It's not a silver bullet but it will have some influence without doubt. I can understand your desire to down play it by a reverse process of overclaiming what it can achieve but it's a bit transparent. The reality is it's not the be all and end all but it counts for quite a lot which is why all the candidates would have killed for it.    


by ottovbvs on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 12:23:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Obama is where he is in part because the media has given him a featherbed ride. I don't believe anyone can tell at the moment whether his support is wide and shallow or more substantial. If the media started doing to him what they normally do to front-runners--picking him apart on stupid, inconsequential things, asking nasty questions over and over again and painting him as a jerk if he doesn't kowtow, characterizing every pause in his tailwind as the beginning of the end--then we might have a better understanding of his political strength.

I don't like what the media does. But Clinton has been in the eye of a "failing campaign" firestorm largely constructed by the media right on cue for this point in the campaign. They insist upon their narrative, however destructive it may be. She has faced Republican fury for sixteen years and very seldom stumbled, and gives as good as she gets with the GOP.

Obama may come through such a test with flying colors, but he hasn't faced that test, or the one created by the whole Republican hate machine yet.  Until then, he is legitimately called untested.


by anoregonreader on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 01:46:16 PM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Well, George, that's the diary I had always hoped you would be writing sixteen days out from voting in Iowa.  And well written, too.  We still have a bet right?  February 6th?  See you there.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 03:54:12 PM EST

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Well, it would probably have to be credit card purchase of a gift card or paypal, or some such, as "seeing you there" would be quite the expensive undertaking, given that you have Kangaroos and Koala Bears running into the path of your car while we here are dodging deer and racoons.  :-)


by georgep on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 03:58:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Something like that...  It's mostly Swamp Wallabies near where I live, and Mountain Bobucks and Echidnas.  You wouldn't believe some of the critters here.

I meant a 'virtual' see you there, on reflection, and incidentally would, as previously mentioned, always be happy to extend you and your family a welcome if you ever made it out this way.  It's just headed into summer now, I was down at the beach yesterday to have a swim and get some sun.  The ocean seemed as warm and soft as a bath.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Dec 18, 2007 at 07:05:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Sounds nice.  Here in Florida we are used to nice weather mostly year-round, but it has been chilly lately (relatively speaking.)    My aunt lives right outside of Perth, which is on the left side of the continent.  I have never met her, and we were talking about taking a family trip out there to visit, but we'll probably wait until our 2 year old is 6 or 7 to make it easier.  


by georgep on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 01:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Clinton on the comeback trail (none / 0)

Perth is a terrific city you will probably enjoy it immensely.  My kid's mother was originally from Western Australia so I have been out there a couple of times.


by Shaun Appleby on Wed Dec 19, 2007 at 02:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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